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A válság mint negatív információ és bizonytalansági tényező. A válság hatása az egy részvényre jutó nyereség-előrejelzésekre
[The financial crisis as negative information and a factor of uncertainty. Analysing the EPS forecasting error in Hungary and Austria]

Author

Listed:
  • Jáki, Erika

Abstract

A szerző a 2008-ban kezdődött gazdasági világválság hatását vizsgálja az egy részvényre jutó nyereség előrejelzésének hibájára. Számos publikáció bizonyította, hogy az elemzők a tényértékeknél szisztematikusan kedvezőbb tervértéket adnak meg az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzéseikben. Más vizsgálatok azt igazolták, hogy az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzési hiba bizonytalan környezetben növekszik, míg arra is számos bizonyítékot lehet találni, hogy a negatív hírek hatását az elemzők alulsúlyozzák. A gazdasági világválság miatt az elemzőknek számtalan negatív hírt kellett figyelembe venniük az előrejelzések készítésekor, továbbá a válság az egész gazdaságban jelentősen növelte a bizonytalanságot. A szerző azt vizsgálja, hogy miként hatott a gazdasági világválság az egy részvényre jutó nyereség- előrejelzés hibájára, megkülönböztetve azt az időszakot, amíg a válság negatív hír volt, attól, amikor már hatásaként jelentősen megnőtt a bizonytalanság. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C12, C90, D03, D53, D83, G02, G17, P11.

Suggested Citation

  • Jáki, Erika, 2013. "A válság mint negatív információ és bizonytalansági tényező. A válság hatása az egy részvényre jutó nyereség-előrejelzésekre [The financial crisis as negative information and a factor of uncertaint," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1357-1369.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1441
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • P11 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform

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