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A Comparative Analysis of Earnings Forecasts in Europe

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Author Info

  • John Capstaff

    (University of Strathclyde,)

  • Krishna Paudyal
  • William Rees

Abstract

This study examines the accuracy and bias of financial analysts' EPS forecasts in nine European countries during 1987 to 1995. There are significant differences between the countries which may be due to the differences in earnings behaviour, accounting practices, and the influence of securities markets. An optimistic bias is endemic in European forecasts, consistent with research from the US. Investors who incorporate earnings forecasts in their stock selection procedures may be able to improve returns by explicitly adjusting their models for observed regularities in earnings forecast errors. However, we have shown that these regularities differ in incidence and magnitude across the countries studied, and further research is needed to effectively model these differences. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2001.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Business Finance & Accounting.

Volume (Year): 28 (2001-06)
Issue (Month): 5-6 ()
Pages: 531-562

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:28:y:2001-06:i:5-6:p:531-562

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X

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Cited by:
  1. Jingwen Ge, 2013. "Gender issues of financial analysts," Post-Print dumas-00934606, HAL.
  2. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
  3. Karine Michalon & Sandrine Lardic & François Dossou, 2005. "Earnings forecast bias - a statistical analysis," Post-Print halshs-00142773, HAL.
  4. Breuer, Wolfgang & Gürtler, Marc, 2010. "Implied rates of return, the discount rate effect, and market risk premia," Working Papers IF33V3, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
  5. Bolliger, Guido, 2004. "The characteristics of individual analysts' forecasts in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2283-2309, September.
  6. Martin Wallmeier, 2005. "Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts for DAX100 Firms During the Stock Market Boom of the 1990s," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 131-151, August.
  7. Dorsman, André B. & Langendijk, Henk P. A. J. & Praag, Bart van, 1997. "The association between the accuracy of long-run qualitative earnings forecasts by managers and discretionary accounting in the Netherlands," Serie Research Memoranda 0040, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  8. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Grüninger, Matthias C. & Hirschvogl, Simone, 2010. "Information asymmetry and the value of cash," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2168-2184, September.
  9. Sandrine LARDIC & Karine MICHALON & François DOSSOU, 2008. "Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(11), pages 1-20.
  10. Coen, Alain & Desfleurs, Aurelie & L'Her, Jean-Francois & Suret, Jean-Marc, 2005. "Another look at factors explaining quality of financial analysts' forecasts: Evidence from the Asian emerging markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 414-434, October.
  11. Simon Hussain, 2006. "Security analysts and 'bad news’: a note on 9/11," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 251-256, July.
  12. Breuer, Wolfgang & Feilke, Franziska & Gürtler, Marc, 2007. "Analysts' dividend forecasts, portfolio selection, and market risk premia," Working Papers FW25V2, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
  13. Attig, Najah & Guedhami, Omrane & Mishra, Dev, 2008. "Multiple large shareholders, control contests, and implied cost of equity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 721-737, December.
  14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:11:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS

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