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A népességöregedés, a vagyonzsugorodási hipotézis és a világgazdasági válság
[Population ageing, shrinking-wealth hypothesis, and world economic crisis]

Author

Listed:
  • Mosolygó, Zsuzsa

Abstract

A fejlett országokra jellemző népességöregedés a következő évtizedek egyik legmeghatározóbb folyamata lehet a világgazdaságban. A tanulmány arra hívja fel a figyelmet, hogy a népesség öregedése s ezen belül a baby boom nemzedék nyugdíjba vonulása a reálgazdasági hatásokon túl érinti a tőkepiacok hosszú távú folyamatait is. A tőkepiaci szakemberek és a gazdaságpolitika alakítói számára is nélkülözhetetlen a demográfiai folyamatok figyelemmel kísérése. Ezek jelzései ugyanis arra utalnak, hogy a következő évtizedekben megváltozhatnak a tőkepiaci tendenciák az elmúlt 20-30 évben megfigyelthez képest. A demográfiai szempontokat figyelembe véve, elképzelhető, hogy megszakad a világ nagy tőzsdéinek száguldása, s az is várható, hogy a fejlett piacok igen alacsony szintű reálkamatai újbóli tartós emelkedő pályára kerülnek. Mindezen folyamatok elméleti háttere a vagyonzsugorodási hipotézis. A tanulmány az e hipotézis mellett és ellen szóló fő érvek elemzésén túl a nyugdíjrendszerbeli következményeket is érinti. Az elemzés kitér a jelenlegi világgazdasági válság demográfiai hátterére is. A baby boom nemzedék fokozatos inaktívvá válása egyúttal növeli a válság kedvezőtlen forgatókönyvének, az elhúzódó stagnálásnak a valószínűségét is. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL ) kód: E32, E44, E24, E21, G11, J14.

Suggested Citation

  • Mosolygó, Zsuzsa, 2009. "A népességöregedés, a vagyonzsugorodási hipotézis és a világgazdasági válság [Population ageing, shrinking-wealth hypothesis, and world economic crisis]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 866-880.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1122
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen To Financial Markets When The Baby Boomers Retire?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 92, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
    3. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Sommer, Mathias, 2005. "Aging and Asset Prices," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-29, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    4. Simonovits, András, 2009. "Népességöregedés, tb-nyugdíj és megtakarítás - parametrikus nyugdíjreformok [Population aging, the public pension system, and savings: parametric pension reforms]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 297-321.
    5. Sebastian Schich, 2009. "Revisiting the asset-meltdown hypothesis," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(2), pages 1-14.
    6. Németh, György, 2009. "A nyugdíjreformról [On pension reform]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 239-269.
    7. Mr. Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen to Financial Markets When the Baby Boomers Retire?," IMF Working Papers 2000/018, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    9. repec:fth:harver:1414 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Robin Brooks, 2006. "Demographic Change and Asset Prices," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mosolygó, Zsuzsa, 2010. "A tőkefedezeti rendszer alapkérdéseinek új megközelítése [A new approach to the basic issues raised by the PAYE system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 612-633.
    2. Mosolygó, Zsuzsa, 2011. "On the long-term trends of public debt – Implications of the government’s Ponzi game and ageing," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 56(4), pages 446-473.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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