Exploration-exploitation and acquisition likelihood in new ventures

The market for acquisitions has been a blind spot in exploration-exploitation research in the new venture context. The introduction of the acquisition exit outcome as a performance dimension for new ventures, especially among high-tech ventures, shifts the traditional temporal logic of exploration-exploitation theory by introducing previously unacknowledged short-term benefits of exploration. We bring the acquisition outcome into the picture and investigate the relationship between the exploration-exploitation continuum and profitability, survival, and acquisition likelihood simultaneously. Using the Kauffman Firm Survey data, we provide evidence for a link between exploration and the likelihood of acquisition (defined as the business being sold to or merged with another business), although industry technology level poses a boundary condition such that the association is not observed in low- and medium-technology firms. An inverse U-shaped relationship that is monotone negative for most of the data range was found between exploration and the profitability of low- and medium-tech firms, and a negatively linear relationship was found for exploration and the profitability of high-tech firms. Our findings lend some support to the viability of “born to flip” strategies involving comparatively higher exploration levels in high-tech start-ups and sacrifice of short-term profitability. Plain English Summary Built-to-flip strategy really does work, but only for some startups. There has been a debate on whether start-ups should be managed specifically with the aim of short-term exit through M&As (built to flip) or if they should always focus on long-term viability (built to last). We tap into the Kauffman Firm Survey data to provide evidence-based insights on this issue. Our results support the viability of “built-to-flip” strategies among some new firms at least when it comes to the balance of exploration and exploitation, measured as relative allocation of employees to R&D vs. sales. High-tech ventures that exited through M&A had higher exploration levels compared to all other sub-groups including high-tech ventures that closed or did not exit, and all low- and medium-tech ventures. Among high-tech ventures, increased exploration does—to a point—lead to a higher likelihood of acquisition, but it comes at the price of reduced profitability. After this peak point, further increase in exploration reduces both acquisition likelihood and profitability.