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Ex Ante Project Evaluation and the Complexity of Early Decision-Making

Author

Listed:
  • Knut Samset

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Tom Christensen

    (University of Oslo)

Abstract

This paper looks beyond more traditional evaluation activities to focus primarily on evaluation up front. It suggests that the early appraisal of an investment case or a project should apply essentially the same evaluation criteria that will be used in ex post evaluation, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project outcome. However, the initial plan might be altered as result of subsequent analysis, assessment, negotiation, positioning, and the exercise of power. The last part of this paper presents an empirical study of 23 projects, which examines the complexity of processes that occur in the idea- and decision phases.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Samset & Tom Christensen, 2017. "Ex Ante Project Evaluation and the Complexity of Early Decision-Making," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:porgrv:v:17:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11115-015-0326-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11115-015-0326-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. March, James G. & Olson, Johan P., 1983. "Organizing Political Life: What Administrative Reorganization Tells Us about Government," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 281-296, June.
    2. Harberger, Arnold C, 1997. "New Frontiers in Project Evaluation? A Comment on Devarajan, Squire, and Suthiwart-Narueput," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 12(1), pages 73-79, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Jianfeng & Greenwood, David & Thurairajah, Niraj & Liu, Henry J. & Haigh, Richard, 2022. "Value for money in transport infrastructure investment: An enhanced model for better procurement decisions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 68-78.
    2. Volden, Gro Holst, 2018. "Public project success as seen in a broad perspective," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 109-117.
    3. Anne Strand Alfredsen Larsen & Gro Holst Volden & Bjørn Andersen, 2021. "Project Governance in State-Owned Enterprises: The Case of Major Public Projects’ Governance Arrangements and Quality Assurance Schemes," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-27, July.
    4. Damian C. Adams & Andres Susaeta & Jose R. Soto & Frederick Rossi & Paloma Carton Grammont & William A. Messina & Frank H. Koch & Demian Gomez & Jiri Hulcr, 2020. "A bioeconomic model for estimating potential economic damages from a hypothetical Asian beetle introduced via future trade with Cuba," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 33-58, April.
    5. Sonia D. Gatchair, 2020. "Towards a Model for Independent Fiscal Policy Oversight in a Small Island State," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 703-718, December.
    6. Elena Fedchenko & Lyubov Gusarova & Timur Timkin & Natalie Gryzunova & Michał Bilczak & Svetlana Frumina, 2023. "Methodology for an Audit of Institutional Projects in the Energy Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-16, April.
    7. Di Caprio, Debora & Santos-Arteaga, Francisco J. & Tavana, Madjid, 2019. "The role of anticipated emotions and the value of information in determining sequential search incentives," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 6(C).
    8. Striebing, Clemens & Kalpazidou Schmidt, Evanthia & Palmén, Rachel, 2019. "Pragmatic ex-ante evaluation using an innovative conceptual framework: The case of a high-tech entrepreneurship program for women," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Lin, Sheng-Hau & Huang, Xianjin & Fu, Guole & Chen, Jia-Tsong & Zhao, Xiaofeng & Li, Jia-Hsuan & Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung, 2021. "Evaluating the sustainability of urban renewal projects based on a model of hybrid multiple-attribute decision-making," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    10. M. Rouhani, Omid, 2019. "Transportation Project Evaluation Methods/Approaches," MPRA Paper 91451, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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