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Optimal Time to Sell in Real Estate Portfolio Management

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  • Fabrice Barthélémy

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  • Jean-Luc Prigent

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    Abstract

    This paper examines the properties of optimal times to sell a diversified real estate portfolio. The portfolio value is supposed to be the sum of the discounted free cash flows and the discounted terminal value (the discounted selling price). According to Baroni et al. (Journal of Property Investment and Finance 25(6):603–625, 2007b ), we assume that the terminal value corresponds to the real estate index. The optimization problem corresponds to the maximization of a quasi-linear utility function. We consider three cases. The first one assumes that the investor knows the probability distribution of the real estate index. However, at the initial time, he has to choose one deterministic optimal time to sell. The second one considers an investor who is perfectly informed about the market dynamics. Whatever the random event that generates the path, he knows the entire path from the beginning. Then, given the realization of the random variable, the path is deterministic for this investor. Therefore, at the initial time, he can determine the optimal time to sell for each path of the index. Finally, the last case is devoted to the analysis of the intertemporal optimization, based on the American option approach. We compute the optimal solution for each of these three cases and compare their properties. The comparison is also made with the buy-and-hold strategy. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-008-9122-6
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 59-87

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:38:y:2009:i:1:p:59-87

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

    Related research

    Keywords: Real estate portfolio; Optimal holding period; American option; C61; G11; R21;

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    References

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    1. Shaun Bond & Soosung Hwang & Zhenguo Lin & Kerry Vandell, 2007. "Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Theory and Empirical Estimates from the UK Commercial Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 447-461, May.
    2. Patric H. Hendershott & David C. Ling, 1984. "Prospective Changes in Tax Law and the Value of Depreciable Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(3), pages 297-317.
    3. Gau, George W & Wang, Ko, 1994. "The Tax-Induced Holding Periods of Real Estate Investors: Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 71-85, January.
    4. David Collett & Colin Lizieri & Charles Ward, 2003. "Timing and the Holding Periods of Institutional Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 205-222, 06.
    5. Baroni, Michel & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Mokrane, Mahdi, 2007. "Optimal Holding Period for a Real Estate Portfolio," ESSEC Working Papers DR 07008, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    6. Baroni, Michel & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Mokrane, Mahdi, 2006. "Monte Carlo Simulations versus DCF in Real Estate Portfolio Valuation," ESSEC Working Papers DR 06002, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
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    Cited by:
    1. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Etienne Dupuy, 2011. "Combining Monte Carlo Simulations and Options to Manage the Risk of Real Estate Portfolios," Post-Print hal-00671067, HAL.
    2. Fabrice Barthelemy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2011. "Real Estate Portfolio Management : Optimization under Risk Aversion," THEMA Working Papers 2011-12, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.

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