IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/hcarem/v15y2012i3p270-282.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling human resources policies with Markov models: an illustration with the South African nursing labour market

Author

Listed:
  • Mylene Lagarde
  • John Cairns

Abstract

This article proposes a modelling framework to simulate and assess the immediate and long-term effects of policy interventions to attract and retain nurses in rural areas. Specifically, we use a Markov model to model the dynamics of movements of health care workers in a professional labour market. A model is developed to simulate the movements of South African nurses between different segments of the labour market over time. The model builds upon a series of assumptions that are stated in details, and uses predictions generated by discrete choice experiments. The results demonstrate the ability of Markov models to model the effects of human resources policy interventions in the short and long run. They highlight the effects of time on the effectiveness of some potential policy interventions, whose immediate positive effects can be eroded as different adverse effects appear. Despite its complexity, this innovative method provides a transparent and useful tool to inform the design of policies to address rural staff shortages. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Mylene Lagarde & John Cairns, 2012. "Modelling human resources policies with Markov models: an illustration with the South African nursing labour market," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 270-282, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:hcarem:v:15:y:2012:i:3:p:270-282
    DOI: 10.1007/s10729-011-9184-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10729-011-9184-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10729-011-9184-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gloria Likupe, 2006. "Experiences of African nurses in the UK National Health Service: a literature review," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(10), pages 1213-1220, October.
    2. Walker, Liz & Gilson, Lucy, 2004. "'We are bitter but we are satisfied': nurses as street-level bureaucrats in South Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 1251-1261, September.
    3. Mariel Lavieri & Martin Puterman, 2009. "Optimizing nursing human resource planning in British Columbia," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 119-128, June.
    4. Briggs, Andrew & Sculpher, Mark & Claxton, Karl, 2006. "Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198526629.
    5. Andrew H. Briggs & A. E. Ades & Martin J. Price, 2003. "Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis for Decision Trees with Multiple Branches: Use of the Dirichlet Distribution in a Bayesian Framework," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 23(4), pages 341-350, July.
    6. Frank A. Sonnenberg & J. Robert Beck, 1993. "Markov Models in Medical Decision Making," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 13(4), pages 322-338, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mandeville, Kate L. & Hanson, Kara & Muula, Adamson S. & Dzowela, Titha & Ulaya, Godwin & Lagarde, Mylène, 2017. "Specialty training for the retention of Malawian doctors: A cost-effectiveness analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 87-95.
    2. Cardoso-Grilo, Teresa & Monteiro, Marta & Oliveira, Mónica Duarte & Amorim-Lopes, Mário & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana, 2019. "From problem structuring to optimization: A multi-methodological framework to assist the planning of medical training," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(2), pages 662-683.
    3. Lagarde, Mylene & Blaauw, Duane & Cairns, John, 2012. "Cost-effectiveness analysis of human resources policy interventions to address the shortage of nurses in rural South Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(5), pages 801-806.
    4. Arora, Nikita & Crastes dit Sourd, Romain & Hanson, Kara & Woldesenbet, Dorka & Seifu, Abiy & Quaife, Matthew, 2022. "Linking health worker motivation with their stated job preferences: A hybrid choice analysis in Ethiopia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    5. Georgiou, Andreas C. & Thanassoulis, Emmanuel & Papadopoulou, Alexandra, 2022. "Using data envelopment analysis in markovian decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 276-292.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pedram Sendi & Huldrych F Günthard & Mathew Simcock & Bruno Ledergerber & Jörg Schüpbach & Manuel Battegay & for the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, 2007. "Cost-Effectiveness of Genotypic Antiretroviral Resistance Testing in HIV-Infected Patients with Treatment Failure," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, January.
    2. Mattias Ekman & Peter Lindgren & Carolin Miltenburger & Genevieve Meier & Julie Locklear & Mary Chatterton, 2012. "Cost Effectiveness of Quetiapine in Patients with Acute Bipolar Depression and in Maintenance Treatment after an Acute Depressive Episode," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(6), pages 513-530, June.
    3. Hiral Anil Shah & Tim Baker & Carl Otto Schell & August Kuwawenaruwa & Khamis Awadh & Karima Khalid & Angela Kairu & Vincent Were & Edwine Barasa & Peter Baker & Lorna Guinness, 2023. "Cost Effectiveness of Strategies for Caring for Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19 in Tanzania," PharmacoEconomics - Open, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 537-552, July.
    4. F. Tomini & F. Prinzen & A. D. I. Asselt, 2016. "A review of economic evaluation models for cardiac resynchronization therapy with implantable cardioverter defibrillators in patients with heart failure," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(9), pages 1159-1172, December.
    5. Andrija S Grustam & Nasuh Buyukkaramikli & Ron Koymans & Hubertus J M Vrijhoef & Johan L Severens, 2019. "Value of information analysis in telehealth for chronic heart failure management," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-23, June.
    6. Elena Losina & Elizabeth E Dervan & A David Paltiel & Yan Dong & R John Wright & Kurt P Spindler & Lisa A Mandl & Morgan H Jones & Robert G Marx & Clare E Safran-Norton & Jeffrey N Katz, 2015. "Defining the Value of Future Research to Identify the Preferred Treatment of Meniscal Tear in the Presence of Knee Osteoarthritis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Gordon B. Hazen, 2022. "Augmenting Markov Cohort Analysis to Compute (Co)Variances: Implications for Strength of Cost-Effectiveness," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 3170-3180, November.
    8. Teresa Cardoso & Mónica Oliveira & Ana Barbosa-Póvoa & Stefan Nickel, 2012. "Modeling the demand for long-term care services under uncertain information," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 385-412, December.
    9. Savvas S. Ioannou & Yiola Marcou & Eleni Kakouri & Michael A. Talias, 2020. "Real-World Setting Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Comparing Three Therapeutic Schemes of One-Year Adjuvant Trastuzumab in HER2-Positive Early Breast Cancer from the Cyprus NHS Payer Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-20, June.
    10. Marta Soares & Luísa Canto e Castro, 2012. "Continuous Time Simulation and Discretized Models for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(12), pages 1101-1117, December.
    11. Christine Nguyen & Mark Bounthavong & Margaret Mendes & Melissa Christopher & Josephine Tran & Rashid Kazerooni & Anthony Morreale, 2012. "Cost Utility of Tumour Necrosis Factor-α Inhibitors for Rheumatoid Arthritis," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(7), pages 575-593, July.
    12. Simon Frey & Roland Linder & Georg Juckel & Tom Stargardt, 2014. "Cost-effectiveness of long-acting injectable risperidone versus flupentixol decanoate in the treatment of schizophrenia: a Markov model parameterized using administrative data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(2), pages 133-142, March.
    13. Sun-Young Kim & Sue Goldie, 2008. "Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Vaccination Programmes," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 191-215, March.
    14. Marta O Soares & L Canto e Castro, 2010. "Simulation or cohort models? Continuous time simulation and discretized Markov models to estimate cost-effectiveness," Working Papers 056cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    15. Carlo Lazzaro & Cecile van Steen & Florent Aptel & Cedric Schweitzer & Luigi Angelillo, 2022. "Cost-Utility Analysis of STN1013001, a Latanoprost Cationic Emulsion, versus Other Latanoprost Formulations (Latanoprost) in Open-Angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension and Ocular Surface Disease in Fr," Post-Print hal-03696350, HAL.
    16. James Shearer & Colin Green & Carl Counsell & John Zajicek, 2011. "The use of decision-analytic models in Parkinson’s disease," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 243-258, July.
    17. Marta O. Soares & Luísa Canto e Castro, 2012. "Continuous Time Simulation and Discretized Models for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(12), pages 1101-1117, December.
    18. Sampson, Christopher & James, Marilyn & Huband, Nick & Geelan, Steve & McMurran, Mary, 2013. "Cost implications of treatment non-completion in a forensic personality disorder service," MPRA Paper 48757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Chiranjeev Sanyal & Don Husereau, 2020. "Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations of Services Provided by Community Pharmacists," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 375-392, June.
    20. Arantzazu Arrospide & Oliver Ibarrondo & Iván Castilla & Igor Larrañaga & Javier Mar, 2022. "Development and Validation of a Discrete Event Simulation Model to Evaluate the Cardiovascular Impact of Population Policies for Obesity," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 42(2), pages 241-254, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:hcarem:v:15:y:2012:i:3:p:270-282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.