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Model Uncertainty, Ambiguity and the Precautionary Principle: Implications for Biodiversity Management

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  • Giannis Vardas

    ()

  • Anastasios Xepapadeas

    ()

Abstract

We analyze ecosystem management under `unmeasurable' Knightian uncertainty or ambiguity which, given the uncertainties characterizing ecosystems, might be a more appropriate framework relative to the classic risk case (measurable uncertainty). This approach is used as a formal way of modelling the precautionary principle in the context of least favorable priors and maxmin criteria. We provide biodiversity management rules which incorporate the precautionary principle. These rules take the form of either safety margins and minimum safety standards or optimal harvesting under precautionary approaches.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10640-009-9319-z
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in its journal Environmental and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 379-404

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Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:45:y:2010:i:3:p:379-404

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100263

Related research

Keywords: Knightian uncertainty; Ambiguity; Risk; Precautionary principle; Biodiversity management; Optimal harvesting; Robust control; D81; Q20;

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References

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  1. Alexei Onatski & Noah Williams, 2002. "Modeling model uncertainty," Discussion Papers 0203-05, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  2. Magill, Michael J. P., 1977. "A local analysis of N-sector capital accumulation under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 211-219, June.
  3. Tisdell, Clement A., 2010. "Conservation Value," Economics, Ecology and Environment Working Papers 90879, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  4. Thomas J. Sargent & LarsPeter Hansen, 2001. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 60-66, May.
  5. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  6. Giannis Vardas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2007. "Uncertainty Aversion, Robust Control And Asset Holdings With A Stochastic Investment Opportunity Set," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(06), pages 985-1014.
  7. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  8. Brock,W. & Xepapadeas,A., 2002. "Regulating nonlinear environmental systems under Knightian uncertainty," Working papers 8, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  9. Epstein Larry G. & Wang Tan, 1995. "Uncertainty, Risk-Neutral Measures and Security Price Booms and Crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 40-82, October.
  10. Revesz, Richard L. & Stavins, Robert N., 2007. "Environmental Law," Handbook of Law and Economics, Elsevier.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Anastasios Xepapadeas & Catarina Roseta-Palma, 2013. "Instabilities and robust control in natural resource management," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 161-180, December.
  2. Pauline Barrieu & Sinclair Desgagné, 2009. "Economic policy when models disagree," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 4, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  3. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael & Glanemann, Nicole, 2011. "Dark Clouds or Silver Linings? Knightian Uncertainty and Climate Change," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-64, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  4. Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 2012. "Dynamic and stochastic analysis of environmental and natural resources," Discussion Papers 120017, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Agricultural Economics and Management.
  5. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas & Athanasios Yannacopoulos, 2014. "Optimal Control in Space and Time and the Management of Environmental Resources," DEOS Working Papers 1402, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  6. Stergios Athanassoglou & Anastasios Xepapadeas, . "Pollution control: when, and how, to be precautious," DEOS Working Papers 1112, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  7. Pauline Barrieu & Bernard Sinclair Desgagne, 2009. "Economic policy when models disagree," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37607, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2012. "Public Good Provision with Robust Decision Making," CESifo Working Paper Series 3996, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Hennlock, Magnus, 2009. "Robust Control in Global Warming Management: An Analytical Dynamic Integrated Assessment," Discussion Papers dp-09-19, Resources For the Future.
  10. Hennlock, Magnus, 2009. "Robust Control in Global Warming Management: An Analytical Dynamic Integrated Assessment," Working Papers in Economics 354, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  11. Athanassoglou, Stergios & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2012. "Pollution control with uncertain stock dynamics: When, and how, to be precautious," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 304-320.
  12. Leizarowitz, Arie & Tsur, Yacov, 2012. "Renewable resource management with stochastic recharge and environmental threats," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 736-753.

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