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A Small-Sample Correction for Testing for gth-Order Serial Correlation with Artificial Regressions

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Belsley, David A

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Abstract

Monte Carlo experiments establish that the usual 't-statistic' used for testing for first-order dial correlation with artificial regressions is far from being distributed as a Student's t in small samples. Rather, it is badly biased in both mean and variance and results in grossly misleading tests of hypotheses when treated as a Student's t. (Similar distortions plague the familiar Durbin-Watson statistic.) Simply computed corrections for the mean and variance are derived, however, which are shown to lead to a transformed statistic producing acceptable tests. The test procedure is detailed and exemplar code provided. Citation Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Computational Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 197-229
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Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:10:y:1997:i:3:p:197-229

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
  2. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Durbin, J, 1970. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 410-21, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. MacKinnon, James G, 1992. "Model Specification Tests and Artificial Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 102-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David A. Belsley, 2000. "An Investigation Of An Unbiased Corection For Heteroskedasticity And The Effects Of Misspecifying The Skedastic Function," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 154, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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