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Modelling trends in central England temperatures

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Author Info
Terence C. Mills (Loughborough University, UK)
David I. Harvey (Loughborough University, UK)
Abstract

Trends are extracted from the central England temperature (CET) data available from 1723, using both annual and seasonal averages. Attention is focused on fitting non-parametric trends and it is found that, while there is no compelling evidence of a trend increase in the CET, there have been three periods of cooling, stability, and warming, roughly associated with the beginning and the end of the Industrial Revolution. There does appear to have been an upward shift in trend spring temperatures, but forecasting of current trends is hazardous because of the statistical uncertainty surrounding them. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.857
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 22 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 35-47
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:1:p:35-47

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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  1. David I. Harvey & Terence C. Mills, 2002. "Unit roots and double smooth transitions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 675-683, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Gomez, Victor, 2001. "The Use of Butterworth Filters for Trend and Cycle Estimation in Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 365-73, July.
  4. Pollock, D. S. G., 2001. "Methodology for trend estimation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 75-96, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pollock, D. S. G., 2000. "Trend estimation and de-trending via rational square-wave filters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 317-334, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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