New Approaches in Business Cycle Research: The Application of Business Cycle Indicators
AbstractThe question arises whether there can be an enrichment of business cycle research when business cycle indicators will be used in an increasing dimension. This article, dedicated to Professor Adolf Wagner, tries to differentiate three fields of research: Hypothesis formation in theory, characterisation of market imbalances and measurement of cycle and trend in empirical methods, short-term prognoses and turning point analyses in forecasting. Can we establish new hypotheses by considering expectations, gained from surveys? A special proposal aimed at the measure of the reference cycle by using the utilization of capacities in enterprises. It is evident, that when using business cycle indicators in business cycle research we can avoid the dichotomy between the three fields in business cycle research, which has been observed in the past.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.
Volume (Year): 224 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (February)
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More information through EDIRC
Business cycle research; business cycle indicators; reference cycle; leading indicators; measurement of cycle and trend; measurement without theory.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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