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Sectoral Specialisation and Growth Rate Differences Among Integrated Economies

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  • André Lorentz

Abstract

This paper analyses the emergence of sectoral specialisation and its effects on growth rate differences providing an alternative approach to endogenous growth processes. To achieve this, we first investigate the conditions leading to sectoral specialisation as an emergent property from the dynamics generated by the model. Second, the paper investigates the relationship between specialisation patterns and growth rate differences among economies. Here again, growth rates differences are treated as an emergent property. The framework developed relies on a Kaldorian growth model with evolutionary micro-founded technical change "à la Nelson and Winter". The paper develops a multi-sectoral growth model. Following the Kaldorian tradition economic growth is here driven by the aggregate demand dynamics, constrained by the balance of payment. Technical change modeling follows the evolutionary literature on growth and industrial dynamics. Firms production techniques are build on the accumulation of capital vintages, developed through an R&D activity. Firms and therefore economies are subject to selection mechanisms through sector-wide replicator dynamics. Two regimes emerge from the simulation, the first is linked to technology dynamics and selection mechanisms and the second is linked to the evolution of the demand structure and demand characteristics. First, specialisation emerges from the heterogeneity in technical change generated by the micro-dynamics. The latter are amplified by the inter-sector selection process provided at the macro-level through wage dynamics. These mechanisms also generate growing differences in GDP growth rates. Second, demand factors influence the concentration of production in a limited number of sectors, this even when neutralising the effect of technical change. These demand factors also exert a major effect on patterns of growth rates differences. For each regimes, specialisation is combined to growth rate differences. But when in the first regime these differences are only transitory, in the second they are permanent.

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Article provided by IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its journal The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics.

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Handle: RePEc:jem:ejemed:1049

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Keywords: Economic Growth; Technical Change; Cumulative Causation; Evolutionary Modeling;

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References

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  1. Marco Valente, 1998. "Laboratory for Simulation Development," DRUID Working Papers 98-5, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  2. Patrick Llerena & Andre' Lorentz, 2003. "Cumulative Causation and Evolutionary Micro-Founded Technical Change: A Growth Model with Integrated Economies," LEM Papers Series 2003/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  3. G. Silverberg & B. Verspagen, 1995. "Evolutionary Theorizing on Economic Growth," Working Papers wp95078, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
  4. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
  5. Patrick Llerena & André Lorentz, 2003. "Alternative Theories on Economic Growth and the Co-evolution of Macro-Dynamics and Technological Change: A survey," LEM Papers Series 2003/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  6. Bart Los & Bart Verspagen, 2006. "The Evolution Of Productivity Gaps And Specialization Patterns," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 464-493, November.
  7. Dalum, Bent & Laursen, Keld & Verspagen, Bart, 1999. "Does Specialization Matter for Growth?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 267-88, June.
  8. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1972. "The Irrelevance of Equilibrium Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(328), pages 1237-55, December.
  9. Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 1995. "An Evolutionary Model of Long Term Cyclical Variations of Catching Up and Falling Behind," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 209-27, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Patrick Llerena & André Lorentz, 2004. "Cumulative Causation and Evolutionary Micro-Founded Technical Change. On the Determinants of Growth rate Differences," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 55(6), pages 1191-1214.

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