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Bayesian inference for the gravity model

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Author Info
Priya Ranjan (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine, USA)
Justin L. Tobias (Department of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA)

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Abstract

This paper seeks to empirically extend the gravity model, which has been widely used to analyze volumes of trade between pairs of countries. We generalize the basic threshold tobit model by allowing for the inclusion of country-specific effects into the analysis and also show how one can explore the relationship between trade volumes and a given covariate via a non-parametric approach. We use our derived methodology to investigate the impact of a particular aspect of institutions-the enforcement of contracts-on bilateral trade. We find that contract enforcement matters in predicting trade volumes for all types of goods, that it matters most for the trade of differentiated goods, and that the relationship between contract enforcement and trade in our threshold tobit exhibits some nonlinearities. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.926
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2007-v22.4/
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 817-838
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:22:y:2007:i:4:p:817-838

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Eaton Jonathan & Tamura Akiko, 1994. "Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 478-510, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Koop, Gary & Poirier, Dale J., 2004. "Bayesian variants of some classical semiparametric regression techniques," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 259-282, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "A Distributed Lag Estimator Derived from Smoothness Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 775-88, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, 2002. "Insecurity And The Pattern Of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 342-352, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Daniel J. Henderson & Daniel L. Millimet, 2008. "Is gravity linear?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 137-172. [Downloadable!]
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