IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ist/ekoist/v0y2022i37p149-169.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Asymmetric Relationship Among Food Prices, the Exchange Rate, and Oil Prices in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Hüseyin İçen

    (İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi, Ekonometri Bölümü, İstanbul, Turkiye.)

  • Nimet Melis Esenyel İçen

    (İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi, Ekonometri Bölümü, İstanbul, Turkiye.)

  • Buğra Polat

    (İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi, Ekonometri Bölümü, İstanbul, Turkiye.)

Abstract

This study examines the short and long-term dynamics among food prices, the exchange rate, and oil prices in Turkey between January 2003-December 2021 using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) method. The empirical results from the NARDL method, which allows positive and negative decompositions of the effects, reveal the presence of a long-term cointegration relationship. While using the NARDL method in the study, the positive and negative components of oil prices and the exchange rate were seen to decompose in different way. The Hodrick–Prescott (HP; 1997) filter was used with this method to decompose the independent variables (i.e., oil prices and the exchange rate) into their positive and negative components. The study first extracted the trend component of the variables with the HP filter, then constructed the variables according to the positive and negative components regarding this trend. Thus, the NARDL model revealed the estimated food prices to be sensitive to changes in the exchange rate and oil prices and the positive and negative changes around the long-term trend to have different effects, thus revealing the presence of asymmetric effects regarding food prices. In addition, the study has concluded the positive changes regarding the long-term trend in oil prices and the exchange rate to have a greater effect on food prices compared to the negative changes. The positive changes regarding oil prices being more dominant than the negative changes is an expected situation in oil-dependent countries such as Turkey. Other additional reasons why the positive shocks in the exchange rate are higher than the negative shocks result from the inputs used in food production processes (including oil) being obtained through imports and from foreign exchange income being dependent on tourism revenues and short-term foreign direct capital rather than high technology product exports . In general, the effects from positive shocks on the explanatory variables used in the analysis can be said to have deeper impacts on food prices in Turkey compared to the negative shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Hüseyin İçen & Nimet Melis Esenyel İçen & Buğra Polat, 2022. "The Asymmetric Relationship Among Food Prices, the Exchange Rate, and Oil Prices in Turkey," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 149-169, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:ekoist:v:0:y:2022:i:37:p:149-169
    DOI: 10.26650/ekoist.2022.37.1168678
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/7E649578C1EE463696BF3F4BAE5789F9
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://iupress.istanbul.edu.tr/en/journal/ekoist/article/turkiyede-gida-fiyatlari-doviz-kuru-ve-petrol-fiyatlari-arasindaki-asimetrik-iliski
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26650/ekoist.2022.37.1168678?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Hebatalla Atef Emam, 2021. "Interest rate setting in Egypt: a NARDL approach for estimating backward-looking monetary policy reaction function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(57), pages 6655-6669, December.
    4. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on multi-scale asymmetric spillovers between food and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Meo, Muhammad Saeed & Uddin, Ajim & Haque, Md. Mahmudul, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of energy price on commodity price: New evidence from NARDL and time frequency wavelet approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    6. Ding, Shusheng & Zhang, Yongmin, 2020. "Cross market predictions for commodity prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 455-462.
    7. Alghalith, Moawia, 2010. "The interaction between food prices and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1520-1522, November.
    8. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    9. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Oil price pass-through into inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 126-133, January.
    10. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:80:p:691-747 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Adam, P. & Rianse, U. & Harafah, Ĺ. M. & Cahyono, E. & Rafiy, M., 2016. "A Model of the Dynamics of the Effect of World Crude Oil Price and World Rice Price on Indonesia’s Inflation Rate," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, March.
    12. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Kuo, Hsiao-I & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2010. "Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2517-2525, August.
    13. Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2010. "Analyzing Factors Affecting U.S. Food Price Inflation," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(3), pages 303-320, September.
    14. Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim & Shokoohi, Zainab, 2011. "Assessing the effect of oil price on world food prices: Application of principal component analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 1022-1025, February.
    15. Rizgar Abdlkarim Abdlaziz & Khalid Abdul Rahim & Peter Adamu, 2016. "Oil and Food Prices Co-integration Nexus for Indonesia: A Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 82-87.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miroslava Ivanova & Lilko Dospatliev, 2023. "Effects of Diesel Price on Changes in Agricultural Commodity Prices in Bulgaria," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    3. Hanif, Waqas & Areola Hernandez, Jose & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "Tail dependence risk and spillovers between oil and food prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 195-209.
    4. Pasrun Adam & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & La Ode Saidi & La Tondi & La Ode Arsad Sani, 2018. "The Causal Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Rice Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 90-94.
    5. Kamaruddin Kamaruddin & Yusri Hazmi & Raja Masbar & Sofyan Syahnur & M. Shabri Abd. Majid, 2021. "Asymmetric Impact of World Oil Prices on Marketing Margins: Application of NARDL Model for the Indonesian Coffee," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 212-220.
    6. Mokni, Khaled & Ben-Salha, Ousama, 2020. "Asymmetric causality in quantiles analysis of the oil-food ‏ ‏nexus since the 1960s," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Karakotsios, Achillefs & Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Kroupis, Nikolaos, 2021. "The dynamic linkages between food prices and oil prices. Does asymmetry matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    8. Yumeng Wang & Shuoli Zhao & Zhihai Yang & Donald J. Liu, 2015. "Food versus crude oil: what do prices tell us? Evidence from China," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(3), pages 435-447, September.
    9. Xuan, Poh Paik & Chin, Lee, 2015. "Pass-through Effect of Oil Price into Consumer Price: An Empirical Study," MPRA Paper 96865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Sun, Yunpeng & Gao, Pengpeng & Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Sharif, Arshian, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the world food prices: Fresh evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    11. Riza Radmehr & Shida Rastegari Henneberry, 2020. "Energy Price Policies and Food Prices: Empirical Evidence from Iran," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-15, August.
    12. Pradeep, Siddhartha, 2022. "Impact of diesel price reforms on asymmetricity of oil price pass-through to inflation: Indian perspective," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    13. Kang, Sang Hoon & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "Exploring the time-frequency connectedness and network among crude oil and agriculture commodities V1," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Belaid, Fateh & Shah, Nida, 2022. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between oil price shocks and the world food prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Bilgili, Faik & Koçak, Emrah & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Bulut, Ümit, 2020. "Estimation of the co-movements between biofuel production and food prices: A wavelet-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    16. Luo, Jiawen & Ji, Qiang, 2018. "High-frequency volatility connectedness between the US crude oil market and China's agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-438.
    17. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on multi-scale asymmetric spillovers between food and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Shokoohi, Zeinab & Saghaian, Sayed, 2022. "Nexus of energy and food nutrition prices in oil importing and exporting countries: A panel VAR model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    19. Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Hasan Güngör & Festus Victor Bekun, 2021. "Revisiting the linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices: Panel evidence from an Agrarian state," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5610-5620, October.
    20. Mourad Zmami & Ousama Ben-Salha, 2019. "Does Oil Price Drive World Food Prices? Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Modeling," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ist:ekoist:v:0:y:2022:i:37:p:149-169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ertugrul YASAR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifisttr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.