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Inhomogeneous Financial Networks and Contagious Links

Author

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  • Hamed Amini

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida 33124)

  • Andreea Minca

    (School of Operations Research and Information Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14850)

Abstract

We propose a framework for testing the possibility of large cascades in financial networks. This framework accommodates a variety of specifications for the probabilities of emergence of “contagious links” conditional on a macroeconomic shock, where a contagious link leads to the default of a bank following the default of its counterparty. Under general contagion mechanisms and incomplete information, the financial network is modeled as an inhomogeneous random graph, where the conditional probabilities of having contagious links depend on banks’ characteristics. We give different bounds on the size of the cascade through contagious links and derive testable conditions for this cascade to be small.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamed Amini & Andreea Minca, 2016. "Inhomogeneous Financial Networks and Contagious Links," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1109-1120, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:64:y:2016:i:5:p:1109-1120
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2016.1540
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. T. R. Hurd, 2023. "Systemic cascades on inhomogeneous random financial networks," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 17, number 1, June.
    2. Rama Cont & Darrell Duffie & Paul Glasserman & Chris Rogers & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2016. "Preface to the Special Issue on Systemic Risk: Models and Mechanisms," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1053-1055, October.
    3. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Guerra, Solange Maria & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2020. "Fiscal risk and financial fragility," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    4. Cheng, Xian & Zhao, Haichuan, 2019. "Modeling, analysis and mitigation of contagion in financial systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 281-292.
    5. Francesca Biagini & Andrea Mazzon & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2018. "Financial asset bubbles in banking networks," Papers 1806.01728, arXiv.org.
    6. Amini, Hamed & Minca, Andreea & Sulem, Agnès, 2017. "Optimal equity infusions in interbank networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-17.
    7. Zhuo Jin & Huafu Liao & Yue Yang & Xiang Yu, 2019. "Optimal Dividend Strategy for an Insurance Group with Contagious Default Risk," Papers 1909.09511, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    8. Zachary Feinstein & Andreas Sojmark, 2019. "A Dynamic Default Contagion Model: From Eisenberg-Noe to the Mean Field," Papers 1912.08695, arXiv.org.
    9. Hamed Amini & Zhongyuan Cao & Andreea Minca & Agn`es Sulem, 2023. "Ruin Probabilities for Risk Processes in Stochastic Networks," Papers 2302.06668, arXiv.org.
    10. Youngna Choi, 2019. "Borrowing Capacity, Financial Instability, And Contagion," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-25, February.
    11. Chen, Naixi & Fan, Hong, 2023. "Credit risk contagion and optimal dual control—An SIS/R model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 448-472.
    12. Oliver Kley & Claudia Klüppelberg & Gesine Reinert, 2016. "Risk in a Large Claims Insurance Market with Bipartite Graph Structure," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1159-1176, October.
    13. Zafer Kanık, 2017. "Rescuing the Financial System: Capabilities, Incentives, and Optimal Interbank Networks," Working Papers 17-17, NET Institute.
    14. Runjie Xu & Chuanmin Mi & Rafal Mierzwiak & Runyu Meng, 2019. "Complex Network Construction of Internet Financial risk," Papers 1904.06640, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    15. Da, Gaofeng & Xu, Maochao & Zhao, Peng, 2021. "Multivariate dependence among cyber risks based on L-hop propagation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 525-546.
    16. Hamed Amini, 2023. "Contagion risks and security investment in directed networks," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 17, number 5, June.
    17. Zachary Feinstein & Andreas Sojmark, 2020. "Dynamic Default Contagion in Heterogeneous Interbank Systems," Papers 2010.15254, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    18. Xu, Runjie & Mi, Chuanmin & Mierzwiak, Rafał & Meng, Runyu, 2020. "Complex network construction of Internet finance risk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    19. Chen, Zhihua & An, Haizhong & An, Feng & Guan, Qing & Hao, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Structural risk evaluation of global gas trade by a network-based dynamics simulation model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 457-471.
    20. Lijun Bo & Shihua Wang & Xiang Yu, 2021. "Mean Field Game of Optimal Relative Investment with Jump Risk," Papers 2108.00799, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    21. Morteza Alaeddini & Philippe Madiès & Paul J. Reaidy & Julie Dugdale, 2023. "Interbank money market concerns and actors’ strategies—A systematic review of 21st century literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 573-654, April.

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