Structural Estimation of the Newsvendor Model: An Application to Reserving Operating Room Time
AbstractThe newsvendor model captures the trade-off faced by a decision maker that needs to place a firm bet prior to the occurrence of a random event. Previous research in operations management has mostly focused on deriving the decision that minimizes the expected mismatch costs. In contrast, we present two methods that estimate the unobservable cost parameters characterizing the mismatch cost function. We present a structural estimation framework that accounts for heterogeneity in the uncertainty faced by the newsvendor as well as in the cost parameters. We develop statistical methods that give consistent estimates of the model primitives, and derive their asymptotic distribution, which is useful to do hypothesis testing. We apply our econometric model to a hospital that balances the costs of reserving too much versus too little operating room capacity to cardiac surgery cases. Our results reveal that the hospital places more emphasis on the tangible costs of having idle capacity than on the costs of schedule overrun and long working hours for the staff. We also extend our structural models to incorporate external information on forecasting biases and mismatch costs reported by the medical literature. Our analysis suggests that overconfidence and incentive conflicts are important drivers of the frequency of schedule overruns observed in our sample.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.
Volume (Year): 54 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
newsvendor model; empirical research; health care; structural estimation; operating room reservation;
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- Halkos, George & Kevork, Ilias, 2012. "Evaluating alternative estimators for optimal order quantities in the newsvendor model with skewed demand," MPRA Paper 36205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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- Soonhui Lee & Tito Homem-de-Mello & Anton Kleywegt, 2012. "Newsvendor-type models with decision-dependent uncertainty," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 76(2), pages 189-221, October.
- Halkos, George & Kevork, Ilias, 2012. "Unbiased estimation of maximum expected profits in the Newsvendor Model: a case study analysis," MPRA Paper 40724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Choi, Sangdo & Wilhelm, Wilbert E., 2014. "An approach to optimize block surgical schedules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 138-148.
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