IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijm/journl/v8y2015i1p67-96.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Microsimulation of Language Dynamics in a Multilingual Region with High Immigration

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Sabourin

    (INRS - Centre Urbanisation Culture Société, 385, rue Sherbrooke Est, Montréal, Québec, Canada, H2X 1E3)

  • Alain Bélanger

    (INRS - Centre Urbanisation Culture Société, 385, rue Sherbrooke Est, Montréal, Québec, Canada, H2X 1E3)

Abstract

In high immigration countries, linguistic integration to the host society may constitute an important economic, social and political issue. This is likely to be even more salient in countries where two or more languages are already competing. Canada is an officially bilingual country characterized by a low fertility and a high immigration regime. This paper describes a dynamic microsimulation model projecting the population of Canada and its regions by mother tongue and language used at home. Emphasis is put on the language module of the model which allows for changes in language characteristics, namely intergenerational changes in mother tongue and intragenerational changes in home language. Mother tongue and home language are then projected for different scenarios in order to investigate the impact of changes in levels and linguistic composition of immigration. Different hypothesis with regard to language preferences of immigrants (which may be influenced through language management legislation) are also taken into account. Results are presented for two regions, the province of Quebec and the rest of Canada at the horizon 2051 as well as for the stable population. Projection results show that the population of non-official mother tongues will increase rapidly to reach 31% in 2051. More interestingly, the results show that the increase in home language is less important due to language shifts. Since these are more favourable to English than French, the ratio of English speakers to French speakers is increasing both in Québec and in the rest of Canada, thus shifting the equilibrium between official languages

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Sabourin & Alain Bélanger, 2015. "Microsimulation of Language Dynamics in a Multilingual Region with High Immigration," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 8(1), pages 67-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:8:y:2015:i:1:p:67-96
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.microsimulation.org/IJM/V8_1/4_IJM_8_1_Sabourin_Belanger.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul W. Miller & Barry R. Chiswick, 2002. "Immigrant earnings: Language skills, linguistic concentrations and the business cycle," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 31-57.
    2. Paul W. Miller & Barry R. Chiswick, 1999. "Language skills and earnings among legalized aliens," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 63-89.
    3. Green, David A. & Craig Riddell, W., 2003. "Literacy and earnings: an investigation of the interaction of cognitive and unobserved skills in earnings generation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 165-184, April.
    4. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1998_10n1_0136 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ana Ferrer & David A. Green & W. Craig Riddell, 2006. "The Effect of Literacy on Immigrant Earnings," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
    6. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1993_48n6_2023 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Steven Wald & Tony Fang, 2008. "Overeducated Immigrants in the Canadian Labour Market: Evidence from the Workplace and Employee Survey," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 34(4), pages 457-480, December.
    8. Chiswick, Barry R & Miller, Paul M, 1996. "Ethnic Networks and Language Proficiency among Immigrants," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 19-35, February.
    9. Rubén G. Rumbaut & Douglas S. Massey & Frank D. Bean, 2006. "Linguistic Life Expectancies: Immigrant Language Retention in Southern California," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(3), pages 447-460, September.
    10. Chiswick, Barry R & Miller, Paul W, 1994. "Language Choice among Immigrants in a Multi-lingual Destination," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 119-131.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julia Beckhusen & Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Thomas de Graaff & Jacques Poot & Brigitte Waldorf, 2012. "Living and Working in Ethnic Enclaves: Language Proficiency of Immigrants in U.S. Metropolitan Areas," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1203, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    2. Julia Beckhusen & Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Thomas Graaff & Jacques Poot & Brigitte Waldorf, 2013. "Living and working in ethnic enclaves: English Language proficiency of immigrants in US metropolitan areas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(2), pages 305-328, June.
    3. Alejandra Cattaneo & Rainer Winkelmann, 2005. "Earnings Differentials between German and French speakers in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 141(II), pages 191-212, June.
    4. Barry R. Chiswick, 2000. "A Model of Immigrant Language Acquisition: Application to Male Immigrants in Canada," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 149, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
    5. Barry Chiswick & Paul Miller, 2001. "A model of destination-language acquisition: Application to male immigrants in Canada," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(3), pages 391-409, August.
    6. Maani, Sholeh A. & Wang, Xingang & Rogers, Alan, 2015. "Network Effects, Ethnic Capital and Immigrants' Earnings Assimilation: Evidence from a Spatial, Hausman-Taylor Estimation," IZA Discussion Papers 9308, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Xingang Wang & Sholeh A. Maani & Alan Rogers, 2021. "Economic Network Effects and Immigrant Earnings," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(316), pages 78-99, March.
    8. Richard E. Mueller & N. T. Khuong Truong, 2022. "Wage and basic skills inequality between immigrants by immigration admission categories and Canadian non-immigrants," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1833-1884, April.
    9. Brigitte S. Waldorf & Julia Beckhusen & Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Thomas De Graaff, 2010. "The role of human capital in language acquisition among immigrants in US metropolitan," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 39-49, June.
    10. Clarke, Andrew & Skuterud, Mikal, 2014. "Immigrant Skill Selection and Utilization: A Comparative Analysis of Australia, Canada, and the United States," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2014-41, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 22 Sep 2014.
    11. Basak Yanar & Agnieszka Kosny & Peter M. Smith, 2018. "Occupational Health and Safety Vulnerability of Recent Immigrants and Refugees," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-16, September.
    12. Barry R. Chiswick & Paul W. Miller, 2018. "Do native-born bilinguals in the US earn more?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 563-583, September.
    13. Barrett, Garry F. & Riddell, W. Craig, 2019. "Ageing and Skills: The Case of Literacy Skills," IZA Discussion Papers 12073, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Constant, Amelie F. & Gataullina, Liliya & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Ethnosizing immigrants," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 274-287, March.
    15. Javier Torres, 2013. "Repeat after me, my name is Javier: immigrants english prociency improvement four years after arrival," Working Papers 13-03, Centro de Investigación, Universidad del Pacífico.
    16. Garry Barrett & W. Craig Riddell, 2016. "Ageing and Literacy Skills: Evidence from IALS, ALL And PIAAC," OECD Education Working Papers 145, OECD Publishing.
    17. Fang, Tony & Samnani, Al-Karim & Novicevic, Milorad M. & Bing, Mark N., 2013. "Liability-of-foreignness effects on job success of immigrant job seekers," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 98-109.
    18. Aldashev, Alisher & Danzer, Alexander M., 2014. "Economic Returns to Speaking the Right Language(s)? Evidence from Kazakhstan's Shift in State Language and Language of Instruction," IZA Discussion Papers 8624, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Budría, Santiago & Swedberg, Pablo, 2014. "The Impact of Multilingualism on Spanish Language Acquisition among Immigrants in Spain," IZA Discussion Papers 8748, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Oliver Himmler & Robert Jäckle, 2018. "Literacy and the Migrant–Native Wage Gap," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(3), pages 592-625, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demolinguistics; language dynamics; projection; immigration; Canada; Québec;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:8:y:2015:i:1:p:67-96. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jinjing Li (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.microsimulation.org/ijm/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.