IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2019q5a2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What Are the Effects of Changes in Taxation and New Types of Mortgages on the Real Economy? The Case of Denmark during the 2000s

Author

Listed:
  • Jesper Pedersen

    (Danmarks Nationalbank)

Abstract

What are the effects of introducing interest-only, flexiblerate mortgage contracts and a tax freeze on housing wealth for the real and financial economy? I study this within a DSGE model with housing, banking, and financial frictions, and the coexistence of flexible-rate, fixed-rate, and interest-only mortgage contracts. I find that the introduction and the adoption of flexible-rate and interest-only mortgage contracts together with a freeze of taxation of the housing wealth can explain 8 percent of the increase in the real house price in Denmark during the period 2004-06 and 0.75 percentage point of the output gap. The household debt-to-GDP ratio would have been almost constant instead of increasing by 20 percentage points. The analysis points to a more volatile Danish economy after the implementation of the structural changes to the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesper Pedersen, 2019. "What Are the Effects of Changes in Taxation and New Types of Mortgages on the Real Economy? The Case of Denmark during the 2000s," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 47-99, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2019:q:5:a:2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb19q5a2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb19q5a2.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, January.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
    3. Finn E. Kydland & Peter Rupert & Roman Sustek, 2012. "Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 18432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    5. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Paolo Gelain & Marcin Kolasa, 2014. "Monetary and macroprudential policy with multiperiod loans," NBP Working Papers 192, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    6. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2017. "Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 352-372.
    7. Alpanda, Sami & Zubairy, Sarah, 2017. "Addressing household indebtedness: Monetary, fiscal or macroprudential policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-73.
    8. Robert B. Barsky & Christopher L. House & Miles S. Kimball, 2007. "Sticky-Price Models and Durable Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 984-998, June.
    9. Margarita Rubio, 2011. "Fixed- and Variable-Rate Mortgages, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 657-688, June.
    10. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J Lansing & Gisle James Natvik, 2018. "Leaning Against the Credit Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(5), pages 1350-1393.
    11. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 383-462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    13. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    14. Sterk, Vincent, 2010. "Credit frictions and the comovement between durable and non-durable consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 217-225, March.
    15. Kydland, Finn & Rupert, Peter & Sustek, Roman, 2012. "Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt7bn5k73m, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    16. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 249-261, June.
    2. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J Lansing & Gisle James Natvik, 2018. "Leaning Against the Credit Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(5), pages 1350-1393.
    3. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    4. Ibrahima Sangaré, 2019. "Housing sector and optimal macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 129, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    5. Kristina Bluwstein & Michał Brzoza‐Brzezina & Paolo Gelain & Marcin Kolasa, 2020. "Multiperiod Loans, Occasionally Binding Constraints, and Monetary Policy: A Quantitative Evaluation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1691-1718, October.
    6. Jiaqian Chen & Daria Finocchiaro & Jesper Linde & Karl Walentin, 2023. "The costs of macroprudential deleveraging in a liquidity trap"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 991-1011, December.
    7. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2017. "Mortgages and Monetary Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(10), pages 3337-3375.
    8. Rubio, Margarita, 2019. "Monetary And Macroprudential Policies Under Fixed And Variable Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 1024-1061, April.
    9. Pietrunti, Mario & Signoretti, Federico M., 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and household debt: The role of cash-flow effects," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Bekiros, Stelios & Nilavongse, Rachatar & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Expectation-driven house prices and debt defaults: The effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    11. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    12. Gabriel Bruneau & Ian Christensen & Césaire Meh, 2018. "Housing market dynamics and macroprudential policies," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 864-900, August.
    13. Rubio, Margarita, 2014. "Housing-market heterogeneity in a monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 163-184.
    14. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Signoretti, Federico M., 2014. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 146-174.
    15. Pintus, Patrick A. & Wen, Yi & Xing, Xiaochuan, 2022. "The inverted leading indicator property and redistribution effect of the interest rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    16. Ugochi Emenogu & Leo Michelis, 2019. "Financial Frictions, Durable Goods and Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 19-31, Bank of Canada.
    17. Sami Alpanda & Gino Cateau & Césaire Meh, 2018. "A policy model to analyze macroprudential regulations and monetary policy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 828-863, August.
    18. Turdaliev, Nurlan & Zhang, Yahong, 2019. "Household debt, macroprudential rules, and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 234-252.
    19. Hashmat Khan & Abeer Reza, 2017. "House Prices and Government Spending Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1247-1271, September.
    20. Leo Michelis & Ugochi T. Emenogu, 2019. "Financial Frictions, Durable Goods and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 075, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2019:q:5:a:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.