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Choice under Partial Uncertainty

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Author Info
Kelsey, David

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Abstract

This paper analyzes problems of choice under uncertainty where a decisionmaker does not use subjective probabilities. The decisionmaker has a set of beliefs about which states are more likely than others, but his beliefs cannot be represented as subjective probabilities. Three main kinds of decision rules are possible in this framework. These are maximin-type, maximax-type, and choosing that action that gives the highest payoff in the state, which the decisionmaker believes to be most likely. The author replaces the commonly used 'merger of states' axiom with a version of the sure-thing principle. Copyright 1993 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 34 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 297-308
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:34:y:1993:i:2:p:297-308

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  1. John K. Stranlund & Barry C. Field, 2006. "On the Production of Homeland Security Under True Uncertainty," Working Papers 2006-5, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Rolf Aaberge, 2002. "Empirical Rules of Thumb for Choice under Uncertainty," ICER Working Papers 22-2002, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. L. Joe Moffitt & John K. Stranlund & Barry C. Field, 2005. "Inspections To Avert Terrorism: Robustness Under Severe Uncertainty," Working Papers 2005-3, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Carlo Zappia, 2008. "Non-Bayesian decision theory ante-litteram: the case of G. L. S. Shackle," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 0408, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mark Machina, 2002. "Robustifying the Classical Model of Risk Preferences and Beliefs," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2002-06, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marcello Basili & Carlo Zappia, 2005. "Ambiguity and uncertainty in Ellsberg and Shackle," Department of Economics University of Siena 460, Department of Economics, University of Siena. [Downloadable!]
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