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Empirical Rules of Thumb for Choice under Uncertainty

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  • Rolf Aaberge

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Abstract

A substantial body of empirical evidence shows that individuals overweight extreme events and act in conflict with the expected utility theory. These findings were the primary motivation behind the development of the rank-dependent utility theory. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that some plausible empirical rules of thumb for choice under uncertainty can be rationalized by the rank-dependent utility theory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ICER - International Centre for Economic Research in its series ICER Working Papers with number 22-2002.

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Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: May 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:22-2002

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Keywords: rank-dependent utility; maximin; maximax; mid-range;

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  1. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
  2. Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January.
  3. Segal, Uzi, 1987. "Some remarks on Quiggin's anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 145-154, March.
  4. Kelsey, David, 1993. "Choice under Partial Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(2), pages 297-308, May.
  5. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
  6. Ramsey, Frank P., 1926. "Truth and Probability," Histoy of Economic Thought Chapters, in: Braithwaite, R. B. (ed.), The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays, chapter 7, pages 156-198 McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought.
  7. Quiggin, J. & Wakker, P., 1992. "The Axiomatic Basis of Anticipated Utility: A Clarification," Papers 9203, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  8. Quiggin, John & Horowitz, John, 1995. "Time and Risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 37-55, January.
  9. Diecidue, E. & Wakker, P.P., 2000. "On the Intuition of Rank-Dependent Utility," Discussion Paper 2000-74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  10. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279.
  11. Quiggin, John, 1987. "Decision weights in anticipated utility theory : Response to Segal," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 641-645, December.
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