IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ief/revaec/v27y2017i93p15-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ciclo Político Presupuestario en Chile: Un estudio exploratorio para las elecciones de alcalde 2012

Author

Listed:
  • Cristian Guzmán Cofré

    (Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Departamento de Economía (Chile))

  • Fabián Luengo Fernández

    (Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción (Chile))

  • Paula Rojas Espinoza

    (Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción (Chile))

Abstract

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo explorar la existencia de ciclos políticos presupuestarios a escala municipal en Chile. Tal como se ha planteado en la literatura, la existencia de ciclo político presupuestario incentiva/motiva a un político en ejercicio a modificar la estructura de gasto con el objetivo de obtener la reelección en el cargo. Para el caso de las elecciones de alcalde de Chile del año 2012, realizamos una estimación cross-section y los resultados evidencian una relación positivo del gasto municipal de los 2 años previo a la elección sobre con la votación que recibe un incumbente. Además, la votación previa del incumbente y la pertenencia a una coalición política inciden en el porcentaje de votos recibidos./ The objective of this research is to explore the existence of budgetary political cycles at municipal level in Chile. As stated in the literature, the existence of budgetary policy cycle encourages / motivates a politician in exercise to modify the structure of expenditure with the objective of obtaining re-election in office. In the case of the elections of mayor of Chile in 2012, we made a cross-section estimation and the results show a positive relationship of the municipal spending of the 2 years prior to the election over the vote received by an incumbent. In addition, the previous vote of the incumbent and the membership of a political coalition affect the percentage of votes received.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristian Guzmán Cofré & Fabián Luengo Fernández & Paula Rojas Espinoza, 2017. "Ciclo Político Presupuestario en Chile: Un estudio exploratorio para las elecciones de alcalde 2012," Revista Actualidad Económica, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 27(93), pages 15-24, Sept-Dic.
    • Handle: RePEc:ief:revaec:v:27:y:2017:i:93:p:15-24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/19141/19080
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balaguer-Coll, María Teresa & Brun-Martos, María Isabel, 2013. "El efecto del gasto público sobre las posibilidades de reelección de los gobiernos locales," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 74-80.
    2. Marcela Eslava, 2011. "The Political Economy Of Fiscal Deficits: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 645-673, September.
    3. Cerda, Rodrigo & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2008. "Government Subsidies and Presidential Election Outcomes: Evidence for a Developing Country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2470-2488, November.
    4. Eslava, Marcela, 2006. "Ciclos políticos de la política fiscal con votantes opuestos al déficit. El caso colombiano," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(290), pages 289-336, abril-jun.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balaguer-Coll, Maria Teresa & Brun-Martos, María Isabel & Forte, Anabel & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2015. "Local governments' re-election and its determinants: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 94-108.
    2. Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll & María Isabel Brun-Martos & Anabel Forte & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "Determinants of local governments'­ reelection: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach," Working Papers 2014/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    3. Silva-Escobar, Daniel, 2022. "Conducta electoral oportunista y determinantes económicos de la reelección de alcaldes/as en Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 10, Estudios Nueva Economía.
    4. Nicole M. Mason & Thomas S. Jayne & Nicolas van de Walle, 2017. "The Political Economy of Fertilizer Subsidy Programs in Africa: Evidence from Zambia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(3), pages 705-731.
    5. Subhasish Dey & Kunal Sen, 2016. "Is partisan alignment electorally rewarding? Evidence from village council elections in India," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series esid-063-16, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    6. Giesenow, Federico M. & de Wit, Juliette & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "The political and institutional determinants of fiscal adjustments and expansions: Evidence for a large set of countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Klomp, Jeroen, 2023. "Political budget cycles in military expenditures: A meta-analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1083-1102.
    8. Keefer, Philip & Scartascini, Carlos & Vlaicu, Razvan, 2022. "Demand-side determinants of public spending allocations: Voter trust, risk and time preferences," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    9. Ziogas, Thanasis & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Revisiting the political economy of fiscal adjustments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    10. Hellwig, Michael & Polk, Andreas, 2021. "Do political links influence water prices? Determinants of water prices in Germany," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Mickael Melki & Andrew Pickering, 2014. "Polarization and Government Debt," Discussion Papers 14/10, Department of Economics, University of York.
    12. Joseph Mawejje & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of fiscal policy in East Africa: a panel causality analysis," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(53), pages 105-123, February.
    13. Galindo-Silva, Hector, 2015. "New parties and policy outcomes: Evidence from Colombian local governments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 86-103.
    14. Timothy C. Irwin, 2015. "Defining The Government'S Debt And Deficit," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 711-732, September.
    15. Felix Rösel, 2017. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Supervision and Budget Deficits: Evidence from Germany," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 641-666, December.
    16. Drazen, Allan & Eslava, Marcela, 2010. "Electoral manipulation via voter-friendly spending: Theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 39-52, May.
    17. Cazor Katz, Andre & Acuña, Hector & Carrasco, Diego & Carrasco, Martín, 2017. "Transferencias como Canal de Ventaja Electoral: El Caso de Chile [Discretionary Government Transfers to Catch Votes: The Case of Chile]," MPRA Paper 83668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ionut Cotoc & Alok Johri & Cesar Sosa-Padilla, 2018. "Debt, Defaults and Dogma: politics and the dynamics of sovereign debt markets," 2018 Meeting Papers 1125, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Gino Gancia, 2013. "Uncertainty, Electoral Incentives and Political Myopia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 373-400, May.
    20. Christine Olivia Strong, 2023. "The impact of fiscal rules on government debt: evidence from the CFA zone," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2357-2391, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclo político presupuestario; economía política; elecciones municipales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ief:revaec:v:27:y:2017:i:93:p:15-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivan Iturralde or Ivan Iturralde (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ieuncar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.