Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Does the Expectation Hypothesis Hold at the Shortest End of the Term Structure?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Uesugi, Iichiro
  • Yamashiro, Guy M.

Abstract

This paper examines the predictability smile at the shortest end of the term structure. The existence of a predictability smile has been well documented: spreads between long rates and short rates are able to forecast subsequent movements in interest rates well, provided the horizon is three months or less or two years or more. The predictive power of the spread at the shortest maturities, however, has not been adequately investigated. This is a potential shortcoming of the existing literature as a projection of the predictability smile to the shorter maturities is not a guarantee that the expectations hypothesis holds. In Japan, a positive spread between the forward and the spot rates has insufficient predictive power for the future spot rate innovations, while a negative spread has near-perfect predictive ability. Further, we provide evidence that this result is not unique to Japan, as we find this "asymmetric predictability" to be a feature of the very short-term money markets of the U.S., U.K. and Italy.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/17468/1/HJeco0500100710.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Hitotsubashi University in its journal Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 50 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 71-85

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:hit:hitjec:v:50:y:2009:i:1:p:71-85

Contact details of provider:
Phone: +81-42-580-8000
Web page: http://www.econ.hit-u.ac.jp/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Term Structure; Predictability; Money Market;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:hitjec:v:50:y:2009:i:1:p:71-85. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Digital Resources Section, Hitotsubashi University Library).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.