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Hydropower Generation Vulnerability in the Yangtze River in China under Climate Change Scenarios: Analysis Based on the WEAP Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yue Zhang

    (Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Alun Gu

    (Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Hui Lu

    (Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Wei Wang

    (Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

Abstract

Global warming caused by human activities exacerbates the water cycle, changes precipitation features, such as precipitation amount, intensity and time, and raises uncertainties in water resources. This work uses run-off data obtained using climate change models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and selects the Yangtze River Basin as the research boundary to evaluate and analyse the vulnerability of hydropower generation in 2016–2050 on the basis of the water evaluation and planning model. Results show that the amount of rainfall during 2016–2050 in the Yangtze River Basin is estimated to increase with fluctuations in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, hydropower stations exhibit large fluctuations in generating capacity, which present the trend of an increase after a decrease; in the RCP8.5 scenario, the generating capacity of hydropower stations in the Yangtze River Basin presents a steady increase. Over 50% of the generating capacity in the Yangtze River Basin is produced from the Three Gorges Dam and 10 other hydropower stations. Over 90% is generated in eight river basins, including the Jinsha, Ya-lung and Min Rivers. Therefore, climate change may accelerate changes in the Yangtze River Basin and further lead to vulnerability of hydropower generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yue Zhang & Alun Gu & Hui Lu & Wei Wang, 2017. "Hydropower Generation Vulnerability in the Yangtze River in China under Climate Change Scenarios: Analysis Based on the WEAP Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-15, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:11:p:2085-:d:118681
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Qin, Pengcheng & Xu, Hongmei & Liu, Min & Xiao, Chan & Forrest, Kate E. & Samuelsen, Scott & Tarroja, Brian, 2020. "Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    2. Chen, Hao & Liu, Simin & Liu, Qiufeng & Shi, Xueli & Wei, Wendong & Han, Rong & Küfeoğlu, Sinan, 2021. "Estimating the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Aniseh S. Bro & Emilio Moran & Miquéias Freitas Calvi, 2018. "Market Participation in the Age of Big Dams: The Belo Monte Hydroelectric Dam and Its Impact on Rural Agrarian Households," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Esteban Gil & Yerel Morales & Tomás Ochoa, 2021. "Addressing the Effects of Climate Change on Modeling Future Hydroelectric Energy Production in Chile," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-23, January.

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