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Research on the Sustainable Development of Green-Space in Beijing Using the Dynamic Systems Model

Author

Listed:
  • Fangzheng Li

    (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
    Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Yinan Sun

    (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
    Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Xiong Li

    (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
    Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Xinhua Hao

    (Beijing Tsinghua Tongheng Urban Planning & Design Institute, Beijing 100085, China)

  • Wanyi Li

    (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
    Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Yun Qian

    (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
    Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Haimeng Liu

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Haiyan Sun

    (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

Greater contradiction and conflict among urban green space, the development of social economy and the environment have occurred in Beijing. However, few studies have been conducted that consider the three subsystems as a whole. In this study, we defined sustainable development of green space (SDGS) as the coordinated development of the urban green system, social economy, and environment. Based on the datasets from 2000 to 2015, we forecast the SDGS in Beijing under multiple scenarios based on real-world policies using a system dynamics model. We found that the historical SDGS value increased to its highest level in 2012, but declined slightly by 2015. Second, the forecasted SDGS values declined over time in all scenarios, but the decline was greater in scenarios placing a high priority on economic development. In these scenarios, the performance of the indices only improved in certain subsystems. The simulation shows the implementation of the four policies proposed by the government failed to improve the overall level of SDGS in Beijing. This study could provide support for decision-making designed to improve the overall condition of urban green space in Beijing through integrated forecast and scenario simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Fangzheng Li & Yinan Sun & Xiong Li & Xinhua Hao & Wanyi Li & Yun Qian & Haimeng Liu & Haiyan Sun, 2016. "Research on the Sustainable Development of Green-Space in Beijing Using the Dynamic Systems Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:10:p:965-:d:78676
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fangzheng Li & Shasha Lu & Yinan Sun & Xiong Li & Benye Xi & Weiqi Liu, 2015. "Integrated Evaluation and Scenario Simulation for Forest Ecological Security of Beijing Based on System Dynamics Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-29, October.
    2. Feng, Y.Y. & Chen, S.Q. & Zhang, L.X., 2013. "System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of Beijing, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 44-52.
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    4. Cho, Seong-Hoon & Bowker, James Michael & Park, William M., 2006. "Measuring the Contribution of Water and Green Space Amenities to Housing Values: An Application and Comparison of Spatially Weighted Hedonic Models," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1-23, December.
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    6. Tsurumi, Tetsuya & Managi, Shunsuke, 2015. "Environmental value of green spaces in Japan: An application of the life satisfaction approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-12.
    7. Zhang, Z. & Lu, W.X. & Zhao, Y. & Song, W.B., 2014. "Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin Province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 275(C), pages 9-21.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tiejun Dai & Shuo Shan, 2020. "Path Analysis of Beijing’s Dematerialization Development Based on System Dynamics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Jinlong Wang & Ling Yang & Min Deng & Gui Zhang & Yaoqi Zhang, 2023. "Selection of optimal regulation scheme by simulating spatial network of ecological-economic-social compound system: a case study of Hunan province, China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 2831-2856, March.

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