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Integrated Evaluation and Scenario Simulation for Forest Ecological Security of Beijing Based on System Dynamics Model

Author

Listed:
  • Fangzheng Li

    (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Shasha Lu

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Yinan Sun

    (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Xiong Li

    (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Benye Xi

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Silviculture and Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Weiqi Liu

    (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

Forest Ecological Security (FES) means coordinated development of forest ecosystems, social economies, and the forest environment. In this paper, we evaluate FES in Beijing under different designed scenarios using a dynamic systems model and find that first, the initial FES index value (in Scenario 0) increased to its highest level of 0.529 in 2012, but declined slightly to 0.485 by 2020. Second, in Scenarios 1–4, the FES index value reached 0.545, 0.516, 0.585 and 0.637 respectively in 2020, which was enhanced in varying degrees when compared with Scenario 0. The simulation shows the implementation of forest management policies, socioeconomic development and environmental management combine to affect the FES in Beijing. The FES could develop into a good state when the productivity of forest resources, the stability of forest environments and the orderly development of the social economy are carefully maintained (in Scenario 4). This research could provide decision-making in support of the overall improvement of forest conditions while promoting sustainable forestry in Beijing.

Suggested Citation

  • Fangzheng Li & Shasha Lu & Yinan Sun & Xiong Li & Benye Xi & Weiqi Liu, 2015. "Integrated Evaluation and Scenario Simulation for Forest Ecological Security of Beijing Based on System Dynamics Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-29, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:10:p:13631-13659:d:56815
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Yanlong Guo & Xingmeng Ma & Yelin Zhu & Denghang Chen & Han Zhang, 2023. "Research on Driving Factors of Forest Ecological Security: Evidence from 12 Provincial Administrative Regions in Western China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Qiuyan Liu & Mingwu Wang & Xiao Wang & Fengqiang Shen & Juliang Jin, 2018. "Land Eco-Security Assessment Based on the Multi-Dimensional Connection Cloud Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, June.
    4. Fangzheng Li & Yinan Sun & Xiong Li & Xinhua Hao & Wanyi Li & Yun Qian & Haimeng Liu & Haiyan Sun, 2016. "Research on the Sustainable Development of Green-Space in Beijing Using the Dynamic Systems Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-17, September.
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