IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2023i1p71-d1304266.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating the Yields of the Rainfed Potato Crop under Climate Change Scenarios Using the AquaCrop Model in the Peruvian Altiplano

Author

Listed:
  • Jesus Puma-Cahua

    (Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Agrícola, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru)

  • Germán Belizario

    (Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Agrícola, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru
    Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru)

  • Wilber Laqui

    (Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Agrícola, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru
    Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru)

  • Roberto Alfaro

    (Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Agrícola, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru
    Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru)

  • Edilberto Huaquisto

    (Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Agrícola, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru
    Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru)

  • Elmer Calizaya

    (Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru
    Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Topográfica y Agrimensura, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru)

Abstract

Ensuring global food security and adapting to the challenges posed by climate change, particularly in rainfed agriculture, are paramount concerns. This research investigates the impacts of climate change on the yield of the potato crop variety Imilla Negra ( Solanum tuberosum spp.) under the extreme climatic conditions of the Peruvian Altiplano. From the experimentation in six crop plots under a rainfed agricultural system, periodic crop growth parameter measurements were obtained from 2017 to 2018. The results showed a good performance of the AquaCrop model in the calibration and validation, successfully simulating crop growth and yield parameters. Climate projections showed precipitation decreases and temperature and evapotranspiration increases for the representative concentration pathway (RCP), RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2023–2050. A comparison of crop yields between the base period (2006–2021) and the period 2023–2037 showed no significant changes, whereas a more considerable decrease was observed for the period 2038–2050. It is concluded that climate change generates moderate impacts on potato crop yields under the rainfed agricultural system in the Peruvian Altiplano due to the average reduction in precipitation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Puma-Cahua & Germán Belizario & Wilber Laqui & Roberto Alfaro & Edilberto Huaquisto & Elmer Calizaya, 2023. "Evaluating the Yields of the Rainfed Potato Crop under Climate Change Scenarios Using the AquaCrop Model in the Peruvian Altiplano," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:71-:d:1304266
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/1/71/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/1/71/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Umesh, Barikara & Reddy, K.S. & Polisgowdar, B.S. & Maruthi, V. & Satishkumar, U. & Ayyanagoudar, M.S. & Rao, Sathyanarayan & Veeresh, H., 2022. "Assessment of climate change impact on maize (Zea mays L.) through aquacrop model in semi-arid alfisol of southern Telangana," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    2. Ochieng, Justus & Kirimi, Lilian & Mathenge, Mary, 2016. "Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Agricultural Production: The Case of Small-Scale Farmers in Kenya," Working Papers 229711, Egerton University, Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development.
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    4. Eivind Uleberg & Inger Hanssen-Bauer & Bob Oort & Sigridur Dalmannsdottir, 2014. "Impact of climate change on agriculture in Northern Norway and potential strategies for adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 27-39, January.
    5. Montoya, F. & Camargo, D. & Ortega, J.F. & Córcoles, J.I. & Domínguez, A., 2016. "Evaluation of Aquacrop model for a potato crop under different irrigation conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 164(P2), pages 267-280.
    6. Angelo C. Gurgel & John Reilly & Elodie Blanc, 2021. "Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-21, June.
    7. Teodoro Semeraro & Aurelia Scarano & Angelo Leggieri & Antonio Calisi & Monica De Caroli, 2023. "Impact of Climate Change on Agroecosystems and Potential Adaptation Strategies," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, May.
    8. Gennifer Meldrum & Dunja Mijatović & Wilfredo Rojas & Juana Flores & Milton Pinto & Grover Mamani & Eleuterio Condori & David Hilaquita & Helga Gruberg & Stefano Padulosi, 2018. "Climate change and crop diversity: farmers’ perceptions and adaptation on the Bolivian Altiplano," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 703-730, April.
    9. Zhu, Xiufang & Xu, Kun & Liu, Ying & Guo, Rui & Chen, Lingyi, 2021. "Assessing the vulnerability and risk of maize to drought in China based on the AquaCrop model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    10. Wang, Haidong & Cheng, Minghui & Liao, Zhenqi & Guo, Jinjin & Zhang, Fucang & Fan, Junliang & Feng, Hao & Yang, Qiliang & Wu, Lifeng & Wang, Xiukang, 2023. "Performance evaluation of AquaCrop and DSSAT-SUBSTOR-Potato models in simulating potato growth, yield and water productivity under various drip fertigation regimes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    11. Egerer, Sabine & Puente, Andrea Fajardo & Peichl, Michael & Rakovec, Oldrich & Samaniego, Luis & Schneider, Uwe A., 2023. "Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmadzadeh Araji, Hamidreza & Wayayok, Aimrun & Massah Bavani, Alireza & Amiri, Ebrahim & Abdullah, Ahmad Fikri & Daneshian, Jahanfar & Teh, C.B.S., 2018. "Impacts of climate change on soybean production under different treatments of field experiments considering the uncertainty of general circulation models," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 63-71.
    2. Grusson, Youen & Wesström, Ingrid & Svedberg, Elina & Joel, Abraham, 2021. "Influence of climate change on water partitioning in agricultural watersheds: Examples from Sweden," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    3. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    4. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    5. Li, Pei & Huang, Qiang & Huang, Shengzhi & Leng, Guoyong & Peng, Jian & Wang, Hao & Zheng, Xudong & Li, Yifei & Fang, Wei, 2022. "Various maize yield losses and their dynamics triggered by drought thresholds based on Copula-Bayesian conditional probabilities," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    6. Wang, Haidong & Cheng, Minghui & Liao, Zhenqi & Guo, Jinjin & Zhang, Fucang & Fan, Junliang & Feng, Hao & Yang, Qiliang & Wu, Lifeng & Wang, Xiukang, 2023. "Performance evaluation of AquaCrop and DSSAT-SUBSTOR-Potato models in simulating potato growth, yield and water productivity under various drip fertigation regimes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    7. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    8. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    9. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    10. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    11. Samuel Asante Gyamerah & Philip Ngare & Dennis Ikpe, 2018. "Regime-Switching Temperature Dynamics Model for Weather Derivatives," International Journal of Stochastic Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-15, July.
    12. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    13. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    14. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Roberto Roson & Richard Damania, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity: an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," IEFE Working Papers 84, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    16. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    17. Giorgio Baiamonte & Mario Minacapilli & Giuseppina Crescimanno, 2020. "Effects of Biochar on Irrigation Management and Water Use Efficiency for Three Different Crops in a Desert Sandy Soil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    18. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    19. Henzler, Julia & Weise, Hanna & Enright, Neal J. & Zander, Susanne & Tietjen, Britta, 2018. "A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 389(C), pages 41-49.
    20. Abhiru Aryal & Albira Acharya & Ajay Kalra, 2022. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-22, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:71-:d:1304266. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.