IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i22p15737-d1276197.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China

Author

Listed:
  • Linghui Guo

    (School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China)

  • Yuanyuan Luo

    (School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China)

  • Yao Li

    (School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China)

  • Tianping Wang

    (Nature Reserve and Wildlife Conservation Center, Jiaozuo 454000, China)

  • Jiangbo Gao

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Rd., Beijing 100101, China
    Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China)

  • Hebing Zhang

    (School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China)

  • Youfeng Zou

    (School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China)

  • Shaohong Wu

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Rd., Beijing 100101, China)

Abstract

Understanding variations in drought characteristics is of great importance for water resource planning and agriculture risk management. Despite increasing interest in exploring spatiotemporal drought patterns, long-term drought event characteristics and their future changes are unclear in major grain-producing areas in China. In this study, we applied Run theory, Sen’s slope, the modified Mann–Kendall method, wavelet analysis, and three machine learning models to systematically examine drought variation patterns, their future trends, and agricultural exposure in Henan Province, China, from 1961 to 2019. The results indicated that the SPEI-12 showed a significant increase at a rate of 0.0017/month during 1961–1999, but this has gradually changed to a drying trend since the 21st century. Drought event characteristics shifted markedly during these two periods, with drought duration and severity gradually shifting from east to west. The BO-LSTM model performed better than the LSTM and BP models, indicating that the drought frequency, higher drought duration, and drought peak would greatly increase 1.28–3.40-fold and cropland exposure is predicted to increase 1.61-fold in the near future compared to the first two decades of the 21st century. This finding not only helps developing meteorological drought predicting models, but also provides the scientific groundwork for drought disaster prevention and mitigation in Henan Province.

Suggested Citation

  • Linghui Guo & Yuanyuan Luo & Yao Li & Tianping Wang & Jiangbo Gao & Hebing Zhang & Youfeng Zou & Shaohong Wu, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-19, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:22:p:15737-:d:1276197
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/22/15737/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/22/15737/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jie Tao & Wenzhao Qiao & Hang Li & Xiaoning Qu & Rong Gan, 2022. "Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and causes of drought and flood in the Henan section of the Yellow River," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 997-1016, September.
    2. Kevin E. Trenberth & Aiguo Dai & Gerard van der Schrier & Philip D. Jones & Jonathan Barichivich & Keith R. Briffa & Justin Sheffield, 2014. "Global warming and changes in drought," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 17-22, January.
    3. Zhipeng Wang & Ershen Zhang & Guojun Chen, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variation and Influencing Factors of Grain Yield in Major Grain-Producing Counties: A Comparative Study of Two Provinces from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-30, September.
    4. Ph. Ciais & M. Reichstein & N. Viovy & A. Granier & J. Ogée & V. Allard & M. Aubinet & N. Buchmann & Chr. Bernhofer & A. Carrara & F. Chevallier & N. De Noblet & A. D. Friend & P. Friedlingstein & T. , 2005. "Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7058), pages 529-533, September.
    5. Justin Sheffield & Eric F. Wood & Michael L. Roderick, 2012. "Little change in global drought over the past 60 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 491(7424), pages 435-438, November.
    6. Biao Xiong & Ruiping Li & Dong Ren & Huigang Liu & Tao Xu & Yingping Huang, 2021. "Prediction of flooding in the downstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir based on a back propagation neural network optimized using the AdaBoost algorithm," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1559-1575, June.
    7. Linyao Dong & Congsheng Fu & Jigen Liu & Pingcang Zhang, 2018. "Combined Effects of Solar Activity and El Niño on Hydrologic Patterns in the Yoshino River Basin, Japan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(7), pages 2421-2435, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Yuliang & Wu, Zhiyong & Singh, Vijay P. & Lin, Qingxia & Ning, Shaowei & Zhou, Yuliang & Jin, Juliang & Zhou, Rongxing & Ma, Qiang, 2023. "Agricultural drought characteristics in a typical plain region considering irrigation, crop growth, and water demand impacts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    2. Shan Jiang & Jian Zhou & Guojie Wang & Qigen Lin & Ziyan Chen & Yanjun Wang & Buda Su, 2022. "Cropland Exposed to Drought Is Overestimated without Considering the CO 2 Effect in the Arid Climatic Region of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Cai, Siyang & Zuo, Depeng & Wang, Huixiao & Xu, Zongxue & Wang, GuoQing & Yang, Hong, 2023. "Assessment of agricultural drought based on multi-source remote sensing data in a major grain producing area of Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    4. Yuqing Zhang & Guangxiong Mao & Changchun Chen & Liucheng Shen & Binyu Xiao, 2021. "Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-28, September.
    5. Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano & Tim R. McVicar & Diego G. Miralles & Yuting Yang & Miquel Tomas‐Burguera, 2020. "Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    6. Anthony S. Kiem & Fiona Johnson & Seth Westra & Albert Dijk & Jason P. Evans & Alison O’Donnell & Alexandra Rouillard & Cameron Barr & Jonathan Tyler & Mark Thyer & Doerte Jakob & Fitsum Woldemeskel &, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: droughts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 37-54, November.
    7. Subhasis Mitra & Puneet Srivastava, 2017. "Spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts in southeastern USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(3), pages 1007-1038, April.
    8. Nam, Won-Ho & Hayes, Michael J. & Svoboda, Mark D. & Tadesse, Tsegaye & Wilhite, Donald A., 2015. "Drought hazard assessment in the context of climate change for South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 106-117.
    9. Xianxian Leng & Xiaogang Liu & Yanli Gao & Yujie Liu & Qiliang Yang & Guangzhao Sun & Youliang Peng & Yifeng Huang, 2020. "Drought assessment of southwestern China based on HadGEM2-ES model under representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 307-334, May.
    10. Subhasis Mitra & Puneet Srivastava & Jasmeet Lamba, 2018. "Probabilistic assessment of projected climatological drought characteristics over the Southeast USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 601-615, April.
    11. Aiguo Dai & Tianbao Zhao, 2017. "Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part I: estimates of historical drought changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 519-533, October.
    12. Sebastian Sippel & F Otto, 2014. "Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 381-398, August.
    13. Panagiotis D. Oikonomou & Christos A. Karavitis & Demetrios E. Tsesmelis & Elpida Kolokytha & Rodrigo Maia, 2020. "Drought Characteristics Assessment in Europe over the Past 50 Years," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 4757-4772, December.
    14. Tianbao Zhao & Aiguo Dai, 2017. "Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: model-simulated historical and future drought changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 535-548, October.
    15. Christa D. Peters-Lidard & Kevin C. Rose & Julie E. Kiang & Michael L. Strobel & Michael L. Anderson & Aaron R. Byrd & Michael J. Kolian & Levi D. Brekke & Derek S. Arndt, 2021. "Indicators of climate change impacts on the water cycle and water management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-23, March.
    16. Dunxian She & Jun Xia, 2018. "Copulas-Based Drought Characteristics Analysis and Risk Assessment across the Loess Plateau of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(2), pages 547-564, January.
    17. Daniel Cooley & Steven M. Smith, 2022. "Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions," NBER Chapters, in: American Agriculture, Water Resources, and Climate Change, pages 135-171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Muhammad Amin & Mobushir Riaz Khan & Sher Shah Hassan & Muhammad Imran & Muhammad Hanif & Irfan Ahmad Baig, 2023. "Determining satellite-based evapotranspiration product and identifying relationship with other observed data in Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 23-39, January.
    19. Finger, Robert, 2010. "Evidence of slowing yield growth - The example of Swiss cereal yields," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 175-182, April.
    20. Rengui Jiang & Jiancang Xie & Hailong He & Jungang Luo & Jiwei Zhu, 2015. "Use of four drought indices for evaluating drought characteristics under climate change in Shaanxi, China: 1951–2012," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2885-2903, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:22:p:15737-:d:1276197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.