IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i18p14036-d1245119.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Elasticities of Passenger Transport Demand on US Intercity Routes: Impact on Public Policies for Sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Escañuela Romana

    (Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Avda. de las Universidades s/n, Dos Hermanas, 41704 Sevilla, Spain)

  • Mercedes Torres-Jiménez

    (Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Avda. de las Universidades s/n, Dos Hermanas, 41704 Sevilla, Spain)

  • Mariano Carbonero-Ruz

    (Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Avda. de las Universidades s/n, Dos Hermanas, 41704 Sevilla, Spain)

Abstract

Passenger transport is a key sector of the economy, and its sustainability depends on achieving the greatest possible efficiency, avoiding problems of congestion or underuse of infrastructures, and reducing the sector’s environmental impact. Knowing the elasticities of demand is critical to achieving these objectives, estimating the intensity of transport demand, and predicting the effect of different policies on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This research proposes a relatively simple model for estimating and predicting the elasticity of demand for different modes of transport at the route level. This model could be used by companies and public management to obtain a vision of the different analysed routes and the pressure of their demand, as well as a relative perspective of each of them. Such a model is used to estimate the price and income demand elasticities of passenger transport modes in domestic routes in the United States (2003–2019), where there is competition between road, rail, and air transport. Series of passenger numbers, fares, and budget shares are reconstructed from the available data. A Rotterdam demand model (RDM) is estimated using a seemingly unrelated regression method (SUR). The estimated income elasticities imply that demand for road transport increases somewhat more proportionally than the increase in income, somewhat less than proportionally for air transport, and with very low proportionality for rail transport. This indicates the need to target investment and service improvement efforts, as well as technological solutions, according to this difference in demand pressures. Finally, the demand response of the three modes of transport to price increases is inelastic, and there is little or no pass-through from one mode to another. This implies that fiscal or carbon pricing actions could have a very limited impact and high social costs. Again, strategies based on investments in technological progress, infrastructure development, and normative interventions could be more effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Escañuela Romana & Mercedes Torres-Jiménez & Mariano Carbonero-Ruz, 2023. "Elasticities of Passenger Transport Demand on US Intercity Routes: Impact on Public Policies for Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-27, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:18:p:14036-:d:1245119
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/18/14036/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/18/14036/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. BARTEN, Anton P., 1977. "The systems of consumer demand functions approach: A review," LIDAM Reprints CORE 284, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    4. Alessandro Severino & Larysa Martseniuk & Salvatore Curto & Larysa Neduzha, 2021. "Routes Planning Models for Railway Transport Systems in Relation to Passengers’ Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-27, August.
    5. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762.
    6. Youzhi Zeng & Bin Ran & Ning Zhang & Xiaobao Yang, 2021. "Estimating the Price Elasticity of Train Travel Demand and Its Variation Rules and Application in Energy Used and CO 2 Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, January.
    7. Gelhausen, Marc C. & Berster, Peter & Wilken, Dieter, 2013. "Do airport capacity constraints have a serious impact on the future development of air traffic?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 3-13.
    8. Henningsen, Arne & Hamann, Jeff D., 2007. "systemfit: A Package for Estimating Systems of Simultaneous Equations in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 23(i04).
    9. Paulley, Neil & Balcombe, Richard & Mackett, Roger & Titheridge, Helena & Preston, John & Wardman, Mark & Shires, Jeremy & White, Peter, 2006. "The demand for public transport: The effects of fares, quality of service, income and car ownership," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 295-306, July.
    10. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.
    11. Clements, Kenneth W & Johnson, Lester W, 1983. "The Demand for Beer, Wine, and Spirits: A Systemwide Analysis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 273-304, July.
    12. Barten, Anton P, 1977. "The Systems of Consumer Demand Functions Approach: A Review," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(1), pages 23-51, January.
    13. William A. Barnett, 1979. "Theoretical Foundations for the Rotterdam Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 46(1), pages 109-130.
    14. David L. Edgerton, 1997. "Weak Separability and the Estimation of Elasticities in Multistage Demand Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 62-79.
    15. Small, K. & Winston, C., 1998. ""The Demand for Transportation: Models and Applications"," Papers 98-99-6, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
    16. Nakamura, Kazuki & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu, 2013. "Strategies and instruments for low-carbon urban transport: An international review on trends and effects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 264-274.
    17. Wardman, Mark, 2006. "Demand for rail travel and the effects of external factors," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 129-148, May.
    18. Wissam Qassim Al-Salih & Domokos Esztergár-Kiss, 2021. "Linking Mode Choice with Travel Behavior by Using Logit Model Based on Utility Function," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-18, April.
    19. William A. Barnett & Ousmane Seck, 2008. "Rotterdam model versus almost ideal demand system: will the best specification please stand up?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 795-824.
    20. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    21. Selvanathan, E. A. & Selvanathan, Saroja, 1994. "The demand for transport and communication in the United Kingdom and Australia," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-9, February.
    22. Wijeweera, Albert & Charles, Michael B., 2013. "Determinants Of Passenger Rail Demand In Perth, Australia: A Time Series Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(2), pages 217-230.
    23. Tae H. Oum & Waters, W.G. & Jong Say Yong, 1990. "A survey of recent estimates of price elasticities of demand for transport," Policy Research Working Paper Series 359, The World Bank.
    24. Yoshihara, Kunio, 1969. "Demand Functions: An Application to the Japanese Expenditure Pattern," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(2), pages 257-274, April.
    25. Yunyi Li & Minhua Shao & Lijun Sun & Xinmiao Wang & Shizhao Song, 2023. "Research on Demand Price Elasticity Based on Expressway ETC Data: A Case Study of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-11, March.
    26. Davis, Lucas W., 2021. "Estimating the price elasticity of demand for subways: Evidence from Mexico," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    27. Albert Wijeweera & Michael Charles, 2013. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Passenger Rail Demand in Melbourne, Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 249-264, December.
    28. Chi, Junwook & Baek, Jungho, 2012. "A dynamic demand analysis of the United States air-passenger service," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 755-761.
    29. Ignacio, Escañuela Romana, 2019. "The elasticities of passenger transport demand in the Northeast Corridor," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ignacio, Escañuela Romana, 2019. "The elasticities of passenger transport demand in the Northeast Corridor," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Clements, Kenneth W. & Gao, Grace, 2015. "The Rotterdam demand model half a century on," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 91-103.
    3. William Barnett & Ousmane Seck, 2006. "Rotterdam vs Almost Ideal Models: Will the Best Demand Specification Please Stand Up?," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200605, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    4. Kenneth W. Clements & Antony Selvanathan & Saroja Selvanathan, 1996. "Applied Demand Analysis: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(216), pages 63-81, March.
    5. William A. Barnett & Isaac Kalonda Kanyama, 2013. "Time-varying parameters in the almost ideal demand system and the Rotterdam model: will the best specification please stand up?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(29), pages 4169-4183, October.
    6. K.W. Clements, 1985. "Alternative Approaches to Consumption Theory," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 85-12, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    7. William A. Barnett & Isaac Kalonda Kanyama, 2013. "Time-varying parameters in the almost ideal demand system and the Rotterdam model: will the best specification please stand up?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(29), pages 4169-4183, October.
    8. William A. Barnett & Ousmane Seck, 2008. "Rotterdam model versus almost ideal demand system: will the best specification please stand up?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 795-824.
    9. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Christian Pfister & Franck Sédillot, 2019. "French Households’ Portfolio: The Financial Almost Ideal Demand System Appraisal," Working papers 728, Banque de France.
    10. Silva, Andres & Garcia, Marian & Bailey, Alastair, 2012. "The Impact of Child Obesity News on Household Food Expenditure in the United Kingdom," 2012 AAEA/EAAE Food Environment Symposium 123526, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Colin C. Williams & Ioana Alexandra Horodnic, 2017. "Tackling Bogus Self-Employment: Some Lessons From Romania," Journal of Developmental Entrepreneurship (JDE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(02), pages 1-20, June.
    12. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2013. "On Demand Analysis and Dynamics: A Benefit Function Approach," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149683, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Zamanipour, Behzad & Ghadaksaz, Hesam & Keppo, Ilkka & Saboohi, Yadollah, 2023. "Electricity supply and demand dynamics in Iran considering climate change-induced stresses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    14. Russell Davidson & Victoria Zinde‐Walsh, 2017. "Advances in specification testing," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1595-1631, December.
    15. Bård Misund & Petter Osmundsen, 2017. "Valuation of proved vs. probable oil and gas reserves," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1385443-138, January.
    16. Le Hoang Phong & Dang Thi Bach Van & Ho Hoang Gia Bao, 2018. "The Role of Globalization on CO2 Emission in Vietnam Incorporating Industrialization, Urbanization, GDP per Capita and Energy Use," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 275-283.
    17. W. Matekenya & R. Ncwadi, 2022. "The impact of maritime transport financing on total trade in South Africa," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17, December.
    18. Sanati, Youssef, 2019. "Der Wirtschaftsstandort Iran zwischen Förderung und Sanktion: Eine ARDL-modellbasierte Analyse ausländischer Investitionen," Arbeitspapiere 186, University of Münster, Institute for Cooperatives.
    19. Soest, Arthur van & Kapteyn, Arie & Kooreman, Peter, 1993. "Coherency and regularity of demand systems with equality and inequality constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 161-188.
    20. Frank Asche & Bård Misund, 2016. "Who’s a major? A novel approach to peer group selection: Empirical evidence from oil and gas companies," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1264538-126, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:18:p:14036-:d:1245119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.