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Demand for rail travel and the effects of external factors

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  • Wardman, Mark
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    Abstract

    This paper estimates an enhanced model for forecasting railway demand and to explain the high levels of growth in the 1990s in Great Britain. The key driver of demand is found to be GDP, but variations in car times, fuel costs, car ownership, population and a post-privatisation time trend also made significant contributions. The estimation makes use of two large data sets obtained from recorded ticket sales and from travel surveys. The estimated models are in use within the rail industry in Great Britain and have been able to successfully predict rail demand growth since 1998.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1366554504000596
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review.

    Volume (Year): 42 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 (May)
    Pages: 129-148

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:42:y:2006:i:3:p:129-148

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600244/description#description

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    Related research

    Keywords: Railways Demand forecasting External factors GDP elasticities;

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    Cited by:
    1. Cheng, Yung-Hsiang, 2010. "High-speed rail in Taiwan: New experience and issues for future development," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 51-63, March.
    2. Antonio Couto & Daniel Graham, 2008. "The impact of high-speed technology on railway demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128, January.
    3. Ahern, Aoife A. & Tapley, Nigel, 2008. "The use of stated preference techniques to model modal choices on interurban trips in Ireland," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 15-27, January.
    4. Nash, Chris & Nilsson, Jan-Eric & Link, Heike, 2011. "Comparing three models for introduction of competition into railways – is a Big Wolf so Bad after all?," Working papers in Transport Economics 2011:19, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    5. Preston, John & Robins, Dawn, 2013. "Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: The case of passenger rail privatisation," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 14-20.

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