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Evaluation and Projection of Diurnal Temperature Range in Maize Cultivation Areas in China Based on CMIP6 Models

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  • Wenqiang Xie

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Shuangshuang Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Xiaodong Yan

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

Abstract

The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological component affecting maize yield. The accuracy of climate models simulating DTR directly affects the projection of maize production. We evaluate the ability of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate DTR during 1961–2014 in maize cultivation areas with the observation (CN05.1), and project DTR under different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The root mean square error ( R M S E ), standard deviation ( S D ), Kling-Gupta efficiency ( K G E ) and comprehensive rating index ( C R I ) are used in the evaluation of the optimal model. The results show that CMIP6 models can generally reproduce the spatial distribution. The reproducibility of the annual average DTR in the maize cultivation areas is better than that in China but lower for the maize-growing season. The optimal model (EC-Earth3-Veg-LR) is used in the projection. Under the two SSPs, the DTR decreases compared with the historical period, especially in Northwest and North China. The DTR under SSP245 remains unchanged (annual) or increases slightly (growing season) during 2015–2050, while a significant decreasing trend is observed under SSP585. This highlights the importance of evaluating DTR in maize cultivation areas, which is helpful to further improve the accuracy of maize yield prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenqiang Xie & Shuangshuang Wang & Xiaodong Yan, 2022. "Evaluation and Projection of Diurnal Temperature Range in Maize Cultivation Areas in China Based on CMIP6 Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1660-:d:739507
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Moriondo & C. Giannakopoulos & M. Bindi, 2011. "Climate change impact assessment: the role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 679-701, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shuangshuang Wang & Wenqiang Xie & Xiaodong Yan, 2022. "Effects of Future Climate Change on Citrus Quality and Yield in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Wenqiang Xie & Xiaodong Yan, 2023. "Responses of Wheat Protein Content and Protein Yield to Future Climate Change in China during 2041–2060," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-22, September.

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    Keywords

    CMIP6; maize; diurnal temperature range; projection; China;
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