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Effects of Future Climate Change on Citrus Quality and Yield in China

Author

Listed:
  • Shuangshuang Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Wenqiang Xie

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Xiaodong Yan

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

Abstract

As the world’s most widely cultivated fruit, citrus in China is increasingly suffering from ongoing climate change, which affects the sustainability of agricultural systems and social economy. In this study, we linked climate factors to citrus quality and yield and established projection models to elucidate the impact of future climate change. Then, we used the ensemble mean of 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models to project the 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 climate changes relative to the historical baseline 1995–2014 period under different shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results show that the monthly mean diurnal temperature range in July had the greatest influence on quality, and monthly mean temperature in October, monthly mean relative humidity in October, monthly mean minimum temperature in November and monthly mean maximum temperature in September had the greatest influence on yield at the growth and ripening stages. Moreover, the quality and yield of citrus present different characteristics in terms of change in cultivation areas in the future. The quality of Sichuan, Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces in China will become significantly better, however, Hubei, Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces it will become worse. Surprisingly, yield will increase in all plantations due to future suitable climate conditions for citrus growth and ripening.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuangshuang Wang & Wenqiang Xie & Xiaodong Yan, 2022. "Effects of Future Climate Change on Citrus Quality and Yield in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-18, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:15:p:9366-:d:876583
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Li, Xiang & Takahashi, Taro & Suzuki, Nobuhiro & Kaiser, Harry M., 2011. "The impact of climate change on maize yields in the United States and China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(4), pages 348-353, April.
    2. Corey Lesk & Pedram Rowhani & Navin Ramankutty, 2016. "Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7584), pages 84-87, January.
    3. Wenqiang Xie & Shuangshuang Wang & Xiaodong Yan, 2022. "Evaluation and Projection of Diurnal Temperature Range in Maize Cultivation Areas in China Based on CMIP6 Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, January.
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