IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i4p1417-d320667.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Flexibility Prediction for Data Center Engagement in Demand Response Programs

Author

Listed:
  • Andreea Valeria Vesa

    (Computer Science Department, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, Memorandumului 28, 400114 Cluj-Napoca, Romania)

  • Tudor Cioara

    (Computer Science Department, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, Memorandumului 28, 400114 Cluj-Napoca, Romania)

  • Ionut Anghel

    (Computer Science Department, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, Memorandumului 28, 400114 Cluj-Napoca, Romania)

  • Marcel Antal

    (Computer Science Department, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, Memorandumului 28, 400114 Cluj-Napoca, Romania)

  • Claudia Pop

    (Computer Science Department, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, Memorandumului 28, 400114 Cluj-Napoca, Romania)

  • Bogdan Iancu

    (Computer Science Department, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, Memorandumului 28, 400114 Cluj-Napoca, Romania)

  • Ioan Salomie

    (Computer Science Department, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, Memorandumului 28, 400114 Cluj-Napoca, Romania)

  • Vasile Teodor Dadarlat

    (Computer Science Department, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, Memorandumului 28, 400114 Cluj-Napoca, Romania)

Abstract

In this paper, we address the problem of the efficient and sustainable operation of data centers (DCs) from the perspective of their optimal integration with the local energy grid through active participation in demand response (DR) programs. For DCs’ successful participation in such programs and for minimizing the risks for their core business processes, their energy demand and potential flexibility must be accurately forecasted in advance. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an energy prediction model that uses a genetic heuristic to determine the optimal ensemble of a set of neural network prediction models to minimize the prediction error and the uncertainty concerning DR participation. The model considers short term time horizons (i.e., day-ahead and 4-h-ahead refinements) and different aspects such as the energy demand and potential energy flexibility (the latter being defined in relation with the baseline energy consumption). The obtained results, considering the hardware characteristics as well as the historical energy consumption data of a medium scale DC, show that the genetic-based heuristic improves the energy demand prediction accuracy while the intra-day prediction refinements further reduce the day-ahead prediction error. In relation to flexibility, the prediction of both above and below baseline energy flexibility curves provides good results for the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), which is just above 6%, allowing for safe DC participation in DR programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreea Valeria Vesa & Tudor Cioara & Ionut Anghel & Marcel Antal & Claudia Pop & Bogdan Iancu & Ioan Salomie & Vasile Teodor Dadarlat, 2020. "Energy Flexibility Prediction for Data Center Engagement in Demand Response Programs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-23, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:1417-:d:320667
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/4/1417/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/4/1417/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alaperä, Ilari & Honkapuro, Samuli & Paananen, Janne, 2018. "Data centers as a source of dynamic flexibility in smart girds," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 69-79.
    2. Zhineng Hu & Jing Ma & Liangwei Yang & Xiaoping Li & Meng Pang, 2019. "Decomposition-Based Dynamic Adaptive Combination Forecasting for Monthly Electricity Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Marcel Antal & Tudor Cioara & Ionut Anghel & Claudia Pop & Ioan Salomie, 2018. "Transforming Data Centers in Active Thermal Energy Players in Nearby Neighborhoods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Pavani Ponnaganti & Jayakrishnan R Pillai & Birgitte Bak‐Jensen, 2018. "Opportunities and challenges of demand response in active distribution networks," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), January.
    5. Feuerriegel, Stefan & Neumann, Dirk, 2016. "Integration scenarios of Demand Response into electricity markets: Load shifting, financial savings and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 231-240.
    6. Seunghui Lee & Sungwon Jung & Jaewook Lee, 2019. "Prediction Model Based on an Artificial Neural Network for User-Based Building Energy Consumption in South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Salah Bouktif & Ali Fiaz & Ali Ouni & Mohamed Adel Serhani, 2018. "Optimal Deep Learning LSTM Model for Electric Load Forecasting using Feature Selection and Genetic Algorithm: Comparison with Machine Learning Approaches †," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, June.
    8. Chiou-Jye Huang & Ping-Huan Kuo, 2018. "A Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Model by Using Artificial Neural Networks with Stochastic Optimization for Renewable Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Huang, Pei & Copertaro, Benedetta & Zhang, Xingxing & Shen, Jingchun & Löfgren, Isabelle & Rönnelid, Mats & Fahlen, Jan & Andersson, Dan & Svanfeldt, Mikael, 2020. "A review of data centers as prosumers in district energy systems: Renewable energy integration and waste heat reuse for district heating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    10. Seyedeh Narjes Fallah & Ravinesh Chand Deo & Mohammad Shojafar & Mauro Conti & Shahaboddin Shamshirband, 2018. "Computational Intelligence Approaches for Energy Load Forecasting in Smart Energy Management Grids: State of the Art, Future Challenges, and Research Directions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-31, March.
    11. Chao Fu & Guo-Quan Li & Kuo-Ping Lin & Hui-Juan Zhang, 2019. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Improved Chicken Algorithm Optimization Support Vector Machine," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, January.
    12. Fan, Cheng & Sun, Yongjun & Zhao, Yang & Song, Mengjie & Wang, Jiayuan, 2019. "Deep learning-based feature engineering methods for improved building energy prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 35-45.
    13. Chen, Yibo & Tan, Hongwei, 2017. "Short-term prediction of electric demand in building sector via hybrid support vector regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 1363-1374.
    14. Liang, Yi & Niu, Dongxiao & Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2019. "Short term load forecasting based on feature extraction and improved general regression neural network model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 653-663.
    15. Good, Nicholas & Ellis, Keith A. & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2017. "Review and classification of barriers and enablers of demand response in the smart grid," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 57-72.
    16. Xi Zhang & Zheng Li & Linwei Ma & Chinhao Chong & Weidou Ni, 2019. "Forecasting the Energy Embodied in Construction Services Based on a Combination of Static and Dynamic Hybrid Input-Output Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, January.
    17. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, January.
    18. Spyros Makridakis & Evangelos Spiliotis & Vassilios Assimakopoulos, 2018. "Statistical and Machine Learning forecasting methods: Concerns and ways forward," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-26, March.
    19. Nikos Kampelis & Elisavet Tsekeri & Dionysia Kolokotsa & Kostas Kalaitzakis & Daniela Isidori & Cristina Cristalli, 2018. "Development of Demand Response Energy Management Optimization at Building and District Levels Using Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network Modelling Power Predictions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, November.
    20. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "An Electricity Price Forecasting Model by Hybrid Structured Deep Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.
    21. Habeebur Rahman & Iniyan Selvarasan & Jahitha Begum A, 2018. "Short-Term Forecasting of Total Energy Consumption for India-A Black Box Based Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, December.
    22. Myoungsoo Kim & Wonik Choi & Youngjun Jeon & Ling Liu, 2019. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Power Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcel Antal & Vlad Mihailescu & Tudor Cioara & Ionut Anghel, 2022. "Blockchain-Based Distributed Federated Learning in Smart Grid," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-19, November.
    2. Paraskevas Koukaras & Paschalis Gkaidatzis & Napoleon Bezas & Tommaso Bragatto & Federico Carere & Francesca Santori & Marcel Antal & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Christos Tjortjis & Dimitrios Tzovaras, 2021. "A Tri-Layer Optimization Framework for Day-Ahead Energy Scheduling Based on Cost and Discomfort Minimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-24, June.
    3. Bianca Goia & Tudor Cioara & Ionut Anghel, 2022. "Virtual Power Plant Optimization in Smart Grids: A Narrative Review," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Tudor Cioara & Marcel Antal & Claudia Daniela Antal (Pop) & Ionut Anghel & Massimo Bertoncini & Diego Arnone & Marilena Lazzaro & Marzia Mammina & Terpsichori-Helen Velivassaki & Artemis Voulkidis & Y, 2020. "Data Centers Optimized Integration with Multi-Energy Grids: Test Cases and Results in Operational Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-23, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shahzad Aslam & Nasir Ayub & Umer Farooq & Muhammad Junaid Alvi & Fahad R. Albogamy & Gul Rukh & Syed Irtaza Haider & Ahmad Taher Azar & Rasool Bukhsh, 2021. "Towards Electric Price and Load Forecasting Using CNN-Based Ensembler in Smart Grid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-28, November.
    2. Sungwoo Park & Jihoon Moon & Seungwon Jung & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik & Eenjun Hwang, 2020. "A Two-Stage Industrial Load Forecasting Scheme for Day-Ahead Combined Cooling, Heating and Power Scheduling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Shangfu Wei & Xiaoqing Bai, 2022. "Multi-Step Short-Term Building Energy Consumption Forecasting Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Hybrid Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Salam, Abdulwahed & El Hibaoui, Abdelaaziz, 2021. "Energy consumption prediction model with deep inception residual network inspiration and LSTM," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 97-109.
    5. Chaturvedi, Shobhit & Rajasekar, Elangovan & Natarajan, Sukumar & McCullen, Nick, 2022. "A comparative assessment of SARIMA, LSTM RNN and Fb Prophet models to forecast total and peak monthly energy demand for India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Liu, Jinyuan & Wang, Shouxi & Wei, Nan & Qiao, Weibiao & Li, Ze & Zeng, Fanhua, 2023. "A clustering-based feature enhancement method for short-term natural gas consumption forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    7. Musaed Alhussein & Syed Irtaza Haider & Khursheed Aurangzeb, 2019. "Microgrid-Level Energy Management Approach Based on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Speed and Solar Irradiance," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-27, April.
    8. Seok-Jun Bu & Sung-Bae Cho, 2020. "Time Series Forecasting with Multi-Headed Attention-Based Deep Learning for Residential Energy Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-16, September.
    9. Barja-Martinez, Sara & Aragüés-Peñalba, Mònica & Munné-Collado, Íngrid & Lloret-Gallego, Pau & Bullich-Massagué, Eduard & Villafafila-Robles, Roberto, 2021. "Artificial intelligence techniques for enabling Big Data services in distribution networks: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    10. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    11. Meyabadi, A. Fattahi & Deihimi, M.H., 2017. "A review of demand-side management: Reconsidering theoretical framework," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 367-379.
    12. Ijaz Ul Haq & Amin Ullah & Samee Ullah Khan & Noman Khan & Mi Young Lee & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Sequential Learning-Based Energy Consumption Prediction Model for Residential and Commercial Sectors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, March.
    13. Li, Ke & Shen, Ruifang & Wang, Zhenguo & Yan, Bowen & Yang, Qingshan & Zhou, Xuhong, 2023. "An efficient wind speed prediction method based on a deep neural network without future information leakage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    14. Davarzani, Sima & Pisica, Ioana & Taylor, Gareth A. & Munisami, Kevin J., 2021. "Residential Demand Response Strategies and Applications in Active Distribution Network Management," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Ninoslav Holjevac & Tomislav Baškarad & Josip Đaković & Matej Krpan & Matija Zidar & Igor Kuzle, 2021. "Challenges of High Renewable Energy Sources Integration in Power Systems—The Case of Croatia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, February.
    16. Magdalena Tutak & Jarosław Brodny, 2019. "Forecasting Methane Emissions from Hard Coal Mines Including the Methane Drainage Process," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-28, October.
    17. Jerez Monsalves, Juan & Bergaentzlé, Claire & Keles, Dogan, 2023. "Impacts of flexible-cooling and waste-heat recovery from data centres on energy systems: A Danish case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    18. Chujie Tian & Jian Ma & Chunhong Zhang & Panpan Zhan, 2018. "A Deep Neural Network Model for Short-Term Load Forecast Based on Long Short-Term Memory Network and Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Manzoor Ellahi & Ghulam Abbas & Irfan Khan & Paul Mario Koola & Mashood Nasir & Ali Raza & Umar Farooq, 2019. "Recent Approaches of Forecasting and Optimal Economic Dispatch to Overcome Intermittency of Wind and Photovoltaic (PV) Systems: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-30, November.
    20. Bertsch, Valentin & Devine, Mel, 2019. "The Role of Demand Response in Mitigating Market Power — A Quantitative Analysis Using a Stochastic Market Equilibrium Model," Papers WP635, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:1417-:d:320667. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.