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Fragile States Metric System: An Assessment Model Considering Climate Change

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  • Yijian Liu

    (Innovation Practice Base of Mathematical Modeling, Electrical and Information College of Jinan University, Zhuhai 519070, China
    Department of Electronic Information Science and Technology, College of Electrical and Information, Jinan University, Zhuhai 519070, China)

  • Chaoqun Zhou

    (Department of Finance, School of International Business, Jinan University, Zhuhai 519070, China)

  • Lin Li

    (School of Translation Studies, Jinan University, Zhuhai 519070, China)

  • Liang Su

    (Innovation Practice Base of Mathematical Modeling, Electrical and Information College of Jinan University, Zhuhai 519070, China
    Department of Finance, School of International Business, Jinan University, Zhuhai 519070, China)

  • Yuanbiao Zhang

    (Innovation Practice Base of Mathematical Modeling, Electrical and Information College of Jinan University, Zhuhai 519070, China
    Key Laboratory of Product Packaging and Logistics of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Jinan University, Zhuhai 519070, China)

Abstract

As a measure of the sustainability of a country, a state’s fragility is attributed to numerous elements. Meanwhile, climate change is a potential global threat in the 21st century, which may further aggravate the fragility of countries. Concerning this issue, we propose an index system, the Fragile States Metric System (FSMS) to measure state fragility, which includes five dimensions: climate change, cohesion, economy, politics and society. Our FSMS consists of the Climate Change Metric System (CCMS) and Modified Conflict Assessment System (M-CAS). While establishing the model, we introduce a new hybrid evaluation method, Gray Relational Analysis (GRA)-Entropy method and variable weight function model, to calculate the weights. As the result, from 2007 to 2017, European countries, in particular Finland, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark, remained the top 5 most stable countries. Robustness analysis proves that FSMS is a relatively stable model. In addition, in the application of FSMS, we introduce the economic theory, Pareto Optimum, to measure intervention costs while mitigating state fragility.

Suggested Citation

  • Yijian Liu & Chaoqun Zhou & Lin Li & Liang Su & Yuanbiao Zhang, 2018. "Fragile States Metric System: An Assessment Model Considering Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-29, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:6:p:1767-:d:149372
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    References listed on IDEAS

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