IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v10y2018i12p4601-d188050.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Artificial Combined Model Based on Hybrid Nonlinear Neural Network Models and Statistics Linear Models—Research and Application for Wind Speed Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Yuewei Liu

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Shenghui Zhang

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Xuejun Chen

    (Gansu Meteorogical Service Centre, Lanzhou 730020, China)

  • Jianzhou Wang

    (School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China)

Abstract

The use of wind power is rapidly increasing as an important part of power systems, but because of the intermittent and random nature of wind speed, system operators and researchers urgently need to find more reliable methods to forecast wind speed. Through research, it is found that the time series of wind speed demonstrate not only linear features but also nonlinear features. Hence, a combined forecasting model based on an improved cuckoo search algorithm optimizes weight, and several single models—linear model, hybrid nonlinear neural network, and fuzzy forecasting model—are developed in this paper to provide more trend change for time series of wind speed forecasting besides improving the forecasting accuracy. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the proposed model is proved by wind speed data from four wind farm sites and the results are more reliable and accurate than comparison models.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuewei Liu & Shenghui Zhang & Xuejun Chen & Jianzhou Wang, 2018. "Artificial Combined Model Based on Hybrid Nonlinear Neural Network Models and Statistics Linear Models—Research and Application for Wind Speed Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-30, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:12:p:4601-:d:188050
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/12/4601/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/12/4601/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Yuanyuan & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Ge & Dong, Yao, 2012. "Application of residual modification approach in seasonal ARIMA for electricity demand forecasting: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 284-294.
    2. Liu, Heping & Shi, Jing & Erdem, Ergin, 2010. "Prediction of wind speed time series using modified Taylor Kriging method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4870-4879.
    3. Jiani Heng & Chen Wang & Xuejing Zhao & Liye Xiao, 2016. "Research and Application Based on Adaptive Boosting Strategy and Modified CGFPA Algorithm: A Case Study for Wind Speed Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-25, March.
    4. Cassola, Federico & Burlando, Massimiliano, 2012. "Wind speed and wind energy forecast through Kalman filtering of Numerical Weather Prediction model output," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 154-166.
    5. Zonggui Yao & Chen Wang, 2018. "A Hybrid Model Based on A Modified Optimization Algorithm and An Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for Short-Term Wind Speed Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-33, May.
    6. Costa, Alexandre & Crespo, Antonio & Navarro, Jorge & Lizcano, Gil & Madsen, Henrik & Feitosa, Everaldo, 2008. "A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 1725-1744, August.
    7. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2009. "Short term wind speed forecasting in La Venta, Oaxaca, México, using artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 274-278.
    8. Lei, Ma & Shiyan, Luan & Chuanwen, Jiang & Hongling, Liu & Yan, Zhang, 2009. "A review on the forecasting of wind speed and generated power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 915-920, May.
    9. Wang, Jianzhou & Heng, Jiani & Xiao, Liye & Wang, Chen, 2017. "Research and application of a combined model based on multi-objective optimization for multi-step ahead wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 591-613.
    10. Göçmen, Tuhfe & Giebel, Gregor, 2016. "Estimation of turbulence intensity using rotor effective wind speed in Lillgrund and Horns Rev-I offshore wind farms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 524-532.
    11. Liu, Da & Wang, Jilong & Wang, Hui, 2015. "Short-term wind speed forecasting based on spectral clustering and optimised echo state networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 599-608.
    12. Zhilong Wang & Chen Wang & Jie Wu, 2016. "Wind Energy Potential Assessment and Forecasting Research Based on the Data Pre-Processing Technique and Swarm Intelligent Optimization Algorithms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-32, November.
    13. Sfetsos, A., 2002. "A novel approach for the forecasting of mean hourly wind speed time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 163-174.
    14. Xiao, Liye & Wang, Jianzhou & Hou, Ru & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A combined model based on data pre-analysis and weight coefficients optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 524-549.
    15. Zhao, Xuejing & Wang, Chen & Su, Jinxia & Wang, Jianzhou, 2019. "Research and application based on the swarm intelligence algorithm and artificial intelligence for wind farm decision system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 681-697.
    16. Tonglin Fu & Chen Wang, 2018. "A Hybrid Wind Speed Forecasting Method and Wind Energy Resource Analysis Based on a Swarm Intelligence Optimization Algorithm and an Artificial Intelligence Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-24, October.
    17. Grubb, Howard & Mason, Alexina, 2001. "Long lead-time forecasting of UK air passengers by Holt-Winters methods with damped trend," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 71-82.
    18. Erdem, Ergin & Shi, Jing, 2011. "ARMA based approaches for forecasting the tuple of wind speed and direction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1405-1414, April.
    19. Hufang Yang & Zaiping Jiang & Haiyan Lu, 2017. "A Hybrid Wind Speed Forecasting System Based on a ‘Decomposition and Ensemble’ Strategy and Fuzzy Time Series," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-30, September.
    20. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhu, Suling & Zhang, Wenyu & Lu, Haiyan, 2010. "Combined modeling for electric load forecasting with adaptive particle swarm optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1671-1678.
    21. De Giorgi, Maria Grazia & Ficarella, Antonio & Tarantino, Marco, 2011. "Assessment of the benefits of numerical weather predictions in wind power forecasting based on statistical methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 3968-3978.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Panagiotis Korkidis & Anastasios Dounis, 2023. "Intelligent Fuzzy Models: WM, ANFIS, and Patch Learning for the Competitive Forecasting of Environmental Variables," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Han Peng & Songyin Li & Linjian Shangguan & Yisa Fan & Hai Zhang, 2023. "Analysis of Wind Turbine Equipment Failure and Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-35, May.
    3. Niu, Xinsong & Wang, Jiyang, 2019. "A combined model based on data preprocessing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 519-539.
    4. Wang, Jujie & Xu, Wenjie & Zhang, Yue & Dong, Jian, 2022. "A novel air quality prediction and early warning system based on combined model of optimal feature extraction and intelligent optimization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Sandra Minerva Valdivia-Bautista & José Antonio Domínguez-Navarro & Marco Pérez-Cisneros & Carlos Jesahel Vega-Gómez & Beatriz Castillo-Téllez, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence in Wind Speed Forecasting: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-28, March.
    6. Sławomir Francik & Adrian Knapczyk & Artur Knapczyk & Renata Francik, 2020. "Decision Support System for the Production of Miscanthus and Willow Briquettes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-24, March.
    7. Wang, Jianzhou & Gao, Jialu & Wei, Danxiang, 2022. "Electric load prediction based on a novel combined interval forecasting system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    8. Liu, Zhenkun & Jiang, Ping & Zhang, Lifang & Niu, Xinsong, 2020. "A combined forecasting model for time series: Application to short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    9. Sławomir Francik & Bogusława Łapczyńska-Kordon & Norbert Pedryc & Wojciech Szewczyk & Renata Francik & Zbigniew Ślipek, 2022. "The Use of Artificial Neural Networks for Determining Values of Selected Strength Parameters of Miscanthus × Giganteus," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-26, March.
    10. Gniewko Niedbała, 2019. "Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Multi-Criteria Yield Prediction of Winter Rapeseed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-13, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Niu, Xinsong & Wang, Jiyang, 2019. "A combined model based on data preprocessing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 519-539.
    2. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    3. Tongxiang Liu & Yu Jin & Yuyang Gao, 2019. "A New Hybrid Approach for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Applying Support Vector Machine with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Whale Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, April.
    4. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    5. Li, Chen & Zhu, Zhijie & Yang, Hufang & Li, Ranran, 2019. "An innovative hybrid system for wind speed forecasting based on fuzzy preprocessing scheme and multi-objective optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1219-1237.
    6. Song, Jingjing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A novel combined model based on advanced optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 643-658.
    7. Jianzhou Wang & Chunying Wu & Tong Niu, 2019. "A Novel System for Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Multi-Objective Optimization and Echo State Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, January.
    8. Yu, Jie & Chen, Kuilin & Mori, Junichi & Rashid, Mudassir M., 2013. "A Gaussian mixture copula model based localized Gaussian process regression approach for long-term wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 673-686.
    9. Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Lu, Haiyan & Guo, Zhenhai & Yang, Wendong & Du, Pei, 2018. "An analysis-forecast system for uncertainty modeling of wind speed: A case study of large-scale wind farms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 492-512.
    10. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A combination forecasting approach applied in multistep wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1108-1125.
    11. Yechi Zhang & Jianzhou Wang & Haiyan Lu, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Combined Model Based on Multiobjective Optimization for Multistep-Ahead Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-27, May.
    12. Zhou, Qingguo & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Gaofeng, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting system based on an optimal model selection strategy for different wind speed forecasting problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1559-1580.
    13. Li, Jingrui & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Haipeng & Li, Zhiwu, 2022. "An innovative combined model based on multi-objective optimization approach for forecasting short-term wind speed: A case study in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 766-779.
    14. Zonggui Yao & Chen Wang, 2018. "A Hybrid Model Based on A Modified Optimization Algorithm and An Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for Short-Term Wind Speed Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-33, May.
    15. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    16. Koo, Junmo & Han, Gwon Deok & Choi, Hyung Jong & Shim, Joon Hyung, 2015. "Wind-speed prediction and analysis based on geological and distance variables using an artificial neural network: A case study in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1296-1302.
    17. Kim, Deockho & Hur, Jin, 2018. "Short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind energy resources using the enhanced ensemble method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 211-226.
    18. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Pan, Di-fu & Li, Yan-fei, 2013. "Forecasting models for wind speed using wavelet, wavelet packet, time series and Artificial Neural Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 191-208.
    19. Pei Du & Yu Jin & Kequan Zhang, 2016. "A Hybrid Multi-Step Rolling Forecasting Model Based on SSA and Simulated Annealing—Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization for Wind Speed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-25, August.
    20. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu & Li, Yanfei & Lu, Haibo, 2018. "A novel ensemble model of different mother wavelets for wind speed multi-step forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1783-1800.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:12:p:4601-:d:188050. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.