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Future Global Air Quality Indices under Different Socioeconomic and Climate Assumptions

Author

Listed:
  • Lara Aleluia Reis

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), 20144 Milan, Italy)

  • Laurent Drouet

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), 20144 Milan, Italy)

  • Rita Van Dingenen

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate for Energy, Transport and Climate, 21027 Ispra, Italy)

  • Johannes Emmerling

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), 20144 Milan, Italy)

Abstract

Future socioeconomic developments and climate policies will play a role in air quality improvement since greenhouse gases and air pollutant emissions are highly connected. As these interactions are complex, air quality indices are useful tools to assess the sustainability of future policies. Here, we compute new global annual air quality indices to provide insights into future global and regional air quality, allowing for the evaluation of the sustainability of climate policies. We project the future concentrations of major the air pollutants for five socioeconomic pathways covering a broad range of climate radiative forcing targets in 2100, using a fast transport chemistry emulator and the emission database produced for the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our findings show that climate policies are very relevant in reducing air pollution exposure by mid-century. Climate policies will have a stronger effect on the pollution reduction timing, while socioeconomic developments will have a greater impact on the absolute pollution level. A 1.5 ∘ C policy target may prevent all regions from exceeding the annual average limit for all pollutants considered, except PM 2.5 . We emphasize the importance of considering exposure air quality indices, when assessing sustainable policies, as being more informative rather than a population-weighted average index.

Suggested Citation

  • Lara Aleluia Reis & Laurent Drouet & Rita Van Dingenen & Johannes Emmerling, 2018. "Future Global Air Quality Indices under Different Socioeconomic and Climate Assumptions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-27, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:10:p:3645-:d:175005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johannes Emmerling & Laurent Drouet & Lara Aleluia Reis & Michela Bevione & Loic Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Samuel Carrara & Enrica De Cian & Gauthier De Maere D'Aertrycke & Tom Longden & Maurizio M, 2016. "The WITCH 2016 Model - Documentation and Implementation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Working Papers 2016.42, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    4. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Getachew F. Belete & Alexey Voinov & Iñaki Arto & Kishore Dhavala & Tatyana Bulavskaya & Leila Niamir & Saeed Moghayer & Tatiana Filatova, 2019. "Exploring Low-Carbon Futures: A Web Service Approach to Linking Diverse Climate-Energy-Economy Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Mathijs J. H. M. Harmsen & Pim Dorst & Detlef P. Vuuren & Maarten Berg & Rita Dingenen & Zbigniew Klimont, 2020. "Co-benefits of black carbon mitigation for climate and air quality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1519-1538, December.
    3. Sebastian Walerysiak & Henryk Wojtaszek & Ireneusz Miciula, 2020. "Dynamic Effects of Sustainable Development Activities in the Air Quality for Selected Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 135-147.
    4. Yuting Xue & Kai Liu, 2022. "Regional Differences, Distribution Dynamics, and Convergence of Air Quality in Urban Agglomerations in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Sungbo Shim & Hyunmin Sung & Sanghoon Kwon & Jisun Kim & Jaehee Lee & Minah Sun & Jaeyoung Song & Jongchul Ha & Younghwa Byun & Yeonhee Kim & Steven T. Turnock & David S. Stevenson & Robert J. Allen &, 2021. "Regional Features of Long-Term Exposure to PM 2.5 Air Quality over Asia under SSP Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-17, June.

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