IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jscscx/v12y2023i11p618-d1275110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Livelihood Changes, Spatial Anticontagion Policy Effects, and Structural Resilience of National Food Systems in a Sub-Saharan African Country Context: A Panel Machine Learning Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Frimpong

    (Division of Applied Social Sciences, University of Missouri, 1406 E Rollins Street, Columbia, MO 65201, USA)

  • Harriet Frimpong

    (Department of Special Education, University of Missouri, 1406 E Rollins Street, Columbia, MO 65201, USA)

  • Alex Barimah Owusu

    (Department of Geography and Resource Development, University of Ghana, Legon, Accra P.O. Box LG 59, Ghana)

  • Isaac Duah Boateng

    (Food Science Program, Division of Food, Nutrition and Exercise Sciences, University of Missouri, 1406 E Rollins Street, Columbia, MO 65211, USA)

  • Benjamin Adjei

    (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Country Office, 69 Isert Road, North Ridge, Accra P.O. Box GP 1628, Ghana)

Abstract

The livelihood changes due to the COVID-19 policies in low-income and transitional economies serve as a lever for gauging the structural resilience of national food systems. Yet, few studies have addressed the cascading effects of the pandemic policies on the livelihood changes of farming system actors or modeled and provided coherent hypotheses about the transitory structural shifts at the micro-level. Other studies on the subject have either captured the early impacts of the pandemic on food systems with limited or no insight into the sub-Saharan African context or have used macro-level data, due to sparsely available micro-level data. These early insights are relevant for the design of early warning systems. However, an ongoing and deeper insight into the effects of pandemic policies is critical, since new and more comprehensive policies are needed to address the economic fallout and the extenuating effects of COVID-19 on food supply chain disruptions. The overriding questions are as follows: what are the effects of the pandemic policies on the livelihoods of food system actors and are there spatial-economic variations in the effects of the pandemic policies on the livelihoods of the farming system actors? Using 2019 and 2020 primary data from 836 farming system actors in Ghana, we offer fresh insights into the transitory micro-level livelihood changes caused by the COVID-19 anticontagion policies. We analyzed the data using the generalized additive, subset regression, classical linear, and logistic regression models in a machine learning framework. We show that the changes in the livelihood outcomes of the food system actors in Ghana coincide with the nature of pandemic mitigation policies adopted in the spatial units. We found that the lockdown policies had a negative and significant effect on the livelihoods of the farming system actors in the lockdown areas. The policies also negatively affected the livelihoods of the farming system actors in distant communities that shared no direct boundary with the lockdown areas. On the contrary, the lockdown policies positively affected the livelihoods of the farming system actors in the directly contiguous communities to the lockdown areas. We also document the shifts in the livelihood outcomes of the farming system actors, such as income, employment, food demand, and food security in the different spatial policy areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Frimpong & Harriet Frimpong & Alex Barimah Owusu & Isaac Duah Boateng & Benjamin Adjei, 2023. "Livelihood Changes, Spatial Anticontagion Policy Effects, and Structural Resilience of National Food Systems in a Sub-Saharan African Country Context: A Panel Machine Learning Approach," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jscscx:v:12:y:2023:i:11:p:618-:d:1275110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/12/11/618/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/12/11/618/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Trong-Anh Trinh, 2022. "The Beneficial Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Air Pollution: Evidence from Vietnam," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(10), pages 1917-1933, October.
    2. World Bank, 2020. "COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens," World Bank Publications - Reports 33634, The World Bank Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pamela Efua Ofori & Daryna Grechyna & Muhammad Shafiullah, 2021. "Remittances, natural resource rent and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1979305-197, January.
    2. Daniel L. Millimet & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2022. "COVID‐19 severity: A new approach to quantifying global cases and deaths," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(3), pages 1178-1215, July.
    3. Rahel Kunz & Brenda Ramírez, 2022. "‘Cambiando el chip’: The gendered constellation of subjectivities of the financialisation of remittances in Mexico," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 54(4), pages 779-799, June.
    4. Arjan Haan, 2020. "Labour Migrants During the Pandemic: A Comparative Perspective," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 63(4), pages 885-900, December.
    5. Lee, Jean N. & Mahmud, Mahreen & Morduch, Jonathan & Ravindran, Saravana & Shonchoy, Abu S., 2021. "Migration, externalities, and the diffusion of COVID-19 in South Asia☆," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    6. Trinh Q. Long, 2021. "Individual Subjective Well-Being during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-18, July.
    7. Egger, Dennis & Miguel, Edward & Warren, Shana S. & Shenoy, Ashish & Collins, Elliott & Karlan, Dean & Parkerson, Doug & Mobarak, A. Mushfiq & Fink, Günther & Udry, Christopher & Walker, Michael & Hau, 2021. "Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(6), pages 1-1.
    8. Hannes Warnecke-Berger, 2022. "The financialization of remittances and the individualization of development: A new power geometry of global development," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 54(4), pages 702-721, June.
    9. Satoshi Shimizutani & Eiji Yamada, 2021. "Resilience against the pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on migration and household welfare in Tajikistan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-20, September.
    10. Lei, Yiyuan & Ozbay, Kaan, 2021. "A robust analysis of the impacts of the stay-at-home policy on taxi and Citi Bike usage: A case study of Manhattan," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 487-498.
    11. Zeynep Gizem Can & Hakki Ciftci, 2022. "International Remittances and Poverty: Blessing or Curse?," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(6), pages 544-561, June.
    12. Agradi, Mawunyo, 2023. "Does remittance inflow influence energy poverty?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    13. Marina POPA & Cristina TOMȘA, 2021. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on migration flows and remittances: effects and consequences," CSIE Working Papers, Center for Studies in European Integration (CSEI), Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova (ASEM), issue 17, pages 14-25, June.
    14. Brindusa Mihaela RADU & Mariana BALAN, 2021. "The Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On The Women Migrant Workers," Internal Auditing and Risk Management, Athenaeum University of Bucharest, vol. 64(4), pages 9-16, December.
    15. Robert Fatton, 2021. "The Paradoxes of the Pandemic and World Inequalities," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-22, September.
    16. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Carletto, Calogero, 2023. "Did a successful fight against COVID-19 come at a cost? Impacts of the pandemic on employment outcomes in Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    17. Nakamura, Nobuyuki & Suzuki, Aya, 2021. "COVID-19 and the intentions to migrate from developing countries: Evidence from online search activities in Southeast Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Natalia Maslii & Maryna Demianchuk & Igor Britchenko & Maksym Bezpartochnyi, 2022. "Modeling Migration Changes According To Alternative Scenarios in the Context of the Global COVID-19 Pandemic: The Example of Ukraine," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 58-71.
    19. Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan, 2022. "Diaspora and Economic Development: A Systemic View," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(3), pages 1522-1541, June.
    20. Segun Subair Awode & Emeka Okoro Akpa & Andy Titus Okwu, 2021. "The effect of remittance and volatility in remittances on macroeconomic performance in Africa: any lessons for COVID-19?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-15, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jscscx:v:12:y:2023:i:11:p:618-:d:1275110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.