IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2024i8p1137-d1373109.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Neural Networks with Transfer Learning and Frequency Decomposition for Wind Speed Prediction with Missing Data

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoou Li

    (Departamento de Computacion, CINVESTAV-IPN (National Polytechnic Institute), Mexico City 07360, Mexico)

  • Yingqin Zhu

    (Departamento de Control Automatico, CINVESTAV-IPN (National Polytechnic Institute), Mexico City 07360, Mexico)

Abstract

This paper presents a novel data-driven approach for enhancing time series forecasting accuracy when faced with missing data. Our proposed method integrates an Echo State Network (ESN) with ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) modeling, frequency decomposition, and online transfer learning. This combination specifically addresses the challenges missing data introduce in time series prediction. By using the strengths of each technique, our framework offers a robust solution for handling missing data and achieving superior forecasting accuracy in real-world applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model through a wind speed prediction case study. Compared to the existing methods, our approach achieves significant improvement in prediction accuracy, paving the way for more reliable decisionmaking in wind energy operations and management.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoou Li & Yingqin Zhu, 2024. "Neural Networks with Transfer Learning and Frequency Decomposition for Wind Speed Prediction with Missing Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:8:p:1137-:d:1373109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/8/1137/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/8/1137/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Tao, Rui, 2021. "Wind speed forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and improved echo state network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 729-751.
    2. Tang, Zhenhao & Zhao, Gengnan & Ouyang, Tinghui, 2021. "Two-phase deep learning model for short-term wind direction forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1005-1016.
    3. Tian, Zhongda & Chen, Hao, 2021. "Multi-step short-term wind speed prediction based on integrated multi-model fusion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    4. Bai, Yulong & Liu, Ming-De & Ding, Lin & Ma, Yong-Jie, 2021. "Double-layer staged training echo-state networks for wind speed prediction using variational mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    5. Zuluaga, Carlos D. & Álvarez, Mauricio A. & Giraldo, Eduardo, 2015. "Short-term wind speed prediction based on robust Kalman filtering: An experimental comparison," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 321-330.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kui Yang & Bofu Wang & Xiang Qiu & Jiahua Li & Yuze Wang & Yulu Liu, 2022. "Multi-Step Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Models Based on Adaptive Robust Decomposition Coupled with Deep Gated Recurrent Unit," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Bai, Yulong & Liu, Ming-De & Ding, Lin & Ma, Yong-Jie, 2021. "Double-layer staged training echo-state networks for wind speed prediction using variational mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    3. Zhang, Yagang & Zhao, Yunpeng & Shen, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Jinghui, 2022. "A comprehensive wind speed prediction system based on Monte Carlo and artificial intelligence algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    4. Xu, Xuefang & Hu, Shiting & Shi, Peiming & Shao, Huaishuang & Li, Ruixiong & Li, Zhi, 2023. "Natural phase space reconstruction-based broad learning system for short-term wind speed prediction: Case studies of an offshore wind farm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    5. Yang Liu & Li Hu Wang & Li Bo Yang & Xue Mei Liu, 2022. "Drought prediction based on an improved VMD-OS-QR-ELM model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-13, January.
    6. Yin, Linfei & Wu, Yunzhi, 2022. "Mode-decomposition memory reinforcement network strategy for smart generation control in multi-area power systems containing renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    7. Liu, Xingdou & Zhang, Li & Wang, Jiangong & Zhou, Yue & Gan, Wei, 2023. "A unified multi-step wind speed forecasting framework based on numerical weather prediction grids and wind farm monitoring data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 948-963.
    8. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Xu, Chuanyu & Dai, Bozhi & Ma, Miaomiao & Su, Xin, 2023. "Power transfer characteristics in fluctuation partition algorithm for wind speed and its application to wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 582-594.
    9. Tian, Zhongda & Chen, Hao, 2021. "Multi-step short-term wind speed prediction based on integrated multi-model fusion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    10. Acikgoz, Hakan & Budak, Umit & Korkmaz, Deniz & Yildiz, Ceyhun, 2021. "WSFNet: An efficient wind speed forecasting model using channel attention-based densely connected convolutional neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    11. Elianne Mora & Jenny Cifuentes & Geovanny Marulanda, 2021. "Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Energy: A Comparison of Deep Learning Frameworks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-26, November.
    12. Shengxiang Lv & Lin Wang & Sirui Wang, 2023. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    13. Chen, Qian & He, Peng & Yu, Chuanjin & Zhang, Xiaochi & He, Jiayong & Li, Yongle, 2023. "Multi-step short-term wind speed predictions employing multi-resolution feature fusion and frequency information mining," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    14. Xiang Ying & Keke Zhao & Zhiqiang Liu & Jie Gao & Dongxiao He & Xuewei Li & Wei Xiong, 2022. "Wind Speed Prediction via Collaborative Filtering on Virtual Edge Expanding Graphs," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-16, June.
    15. Kuznetsov, G.V. & Syrodoy, S.V. & Nigay, N.A. & Maksimov, V.I. & Gutareva, N.Yu., 2021. "Features of the processes of heat and mass transfer when drying a large thickness layer of wood biomass," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 498-511.
    16. Ming Pang & Lei Zhang & Yajun Zhang & Ao Zhou & Jianming Dou & Zhepeng Deng, 2022. "Ultra-Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using the Hybrid Model of Subseries Reconstruction and Broad Learning System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-21, June.
    17. Zhang, Yagang & Zhang, Jinghui & Yu, Leyi & Pan, Zhiya & Feng, Changyou & Sun, Yiqian & Wang, Fei, 2022. "A short-term wind energy hybrid optimal prediction system with denoising and novel error correction technique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PC).
    18. Tavakol Aghaei, Vahid & Ağababaoğlu, Arda & Bawo, Biram & Naseradinmousavi, Peiman & Yıldırım, Sinan & Yeşilyurt, Serhat & Onat, Ahmet, 2023. "Energy optimization of wind turbines via a neural control policy based on reinforcement learning Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    19. Farah, Shahid & David A, Wood & Humaira, Nisar & Aneela, Zameer & Steffen, Eger, 2022. "Short-term multi-hour ahead country-wide wind power prediction for Germany using gated recurrent unit deep learning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    20. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu & Li, Yanfei & Lu, Haibo, 2018. "A novel ensemble model of different mother wavelets for wind speed multi-step forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1783-1800.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:8:p:1137-:d:1373109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.