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Short-Term Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Expectation and Currency Internationalization: Evidence from China

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  • Mingming Li

    (School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China)

  • Fengming Qin

    (School of Economics, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China)

  • Zhaoyong Zhang

    (School of Business & Law, Edith Cowan University, Perth, WA 6027, Australia)

Abstract

This paper intended to employ a portfolio approach to assess the effect of exchange rate expectation on Chinese RMB internationalization and empirically test the interactive effects among short-term capital flows, RMB appreciation expectation and the internationalization process using a VAR model with monthly data ranging from February 2004 to December 2020. The results suggest that RMB exchange rate appreciation could lead to an increase in the foreign demand for RMB and RMB denominated assets, while RMB internationalization would attract more short-term capital inflow due to the reduced transaction costs. The empirical evidence from the VAR model estimation confirms the finding that expected RMB appreciation induces short-term capital inflow and promotes RMB internationalization. The robustness checks confirm the evidence. The results have important policy implication for RMB internationalization and for maintaining a sound and stable financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingming Li & Fengming Qin & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2021. "Short-Term Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Expectation and Currency Internationalization: Evidence from China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:5:p:223-:d:555771
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anton Kuzmin, 2022. "Mathematical Exchange Rates Modeling: Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Dynamics," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Xu, Hao & Li, Songsong, 2023. "What impacts foreign capital flows to China's stock markets? Evidence from financial risk spillover networks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 559-577.
    3. Huiguan Ding & Asli Ogunc & Dale Funderburk & Shiyou Li & Zhebie Shi, 2021. "Influence of Renminbi Internationalization on China’s Monetary Policy Effects: A Theoretical Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(8), pages 1-14, August.
    4. Joseph Zhi Bin Ling & Albert K. Tsui & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2021. "Trading Macro-Cycles of Foreign Exchange Markets Using Hybrid Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-20, September.

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