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Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the Renminbi

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Lardy

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Patrick Douglass

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Despite an erosion of consensus on its benefits, capital account convertibility remains a long-term goal of China. This paper identifies three major preconditions for convertibility in China: a strong domestic banking system, relatively developed domestic financial markets, and an equilibrium exchange rate. The authors examine each of these in turn and find that, in significant respects, China does not yet meet any of the conditions necessary for convertibility. They then evaluate China’s progress to date on capital account liberalization, including recent efforts to promote renminbi internationalization and greater use of the renminbi in trade settlement. The paper concludes with an overview of remaining obstacles to convertibility and policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Lardy & Patrick Douglass, 2011. "Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the Renminbi," Working Paper Series WP11-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp11-6
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dai, Meixing, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," MPRA Paper 30440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Meixing Dai, 2013. "In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 29-46, February.
    3. Löchel, H. & Packham, N. & Walisch, F., 2016. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese government yield curves," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 77-93.
    4. Prasad, Eswar, 2014. "Global Implications of the Renminbi’s Ascendance," ADBI Working Papers 469, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Eswar Prasad & Lei Ye, 2013. "The Renminbi's Prospects as a Global Reserve Currency," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 33(3), pages 563-570, Fall.
    6. Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M. & Zhang, Jingyi, 2021. "Optimal capital account liberalization in China," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1041-1061.
    7. He, Dong & Luk, Paul, 2017. "A Model Of Chinese Capital Account Liberalization," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(8), pages 1902-1934, December.
    8. Mingming Li & Fengming Qin & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2021. "Short-Term Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Expectation and Currency Internationalization: Evidence from China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-15, May.
    9. Ichiro Otani & Tomoyuki Fukumoto & Yosuke Tsuyuguchi, 2011. "China's Capital Controls and Interest Rate Parity: Experience during 1999 - 2010 and Future Agenda for Reforms," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 11-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    10. Sarah Chan, 2019. "China’s Narrowing Current Account Surplus: Evolving Trends and Policy Implications," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 3, pages 345-359, September.
    11. Eswar S. Prasad & Lei Ye, 2011. "The renminbi’s role in the global monetary system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 127-197.
    12. Dominik A. Skopiec, 2014. "Perspektywy internacjonalizacji waluty Chin," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 5-31.
    13. Jeanne, Olivier & Noland, Marcus & Subramanian, Arvind & Williamson, John, 2013. "Financial globalization and long-run growth: is Asia different?," MPRA Paper 55794, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; renminbi; capital account;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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