IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v13y2020i2p31-d318795.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pricing Defaulted Italian Mortgages

Author

Listed:
  • Michela Pelizza

    (Department of Economics, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK)

  • Klaus R. Schenk-Hoppé

    (Department of Economics, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK)

Abstract

Our paper forecasts the expected recovery rates of defaulted Italian mortgage loans backed by either residential or commercial real estate. We apply an exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process to model the price dynamics at the provincial and regional level, and two haircut models to estimate the liquidation value. Compared to our findings, rating agencies such as Moody’s, which use geometric Brownian motion to model the price dynamics, paint a rosier picture with higher recovery rates. As a consequence, non-performing mortgage loans held by Italian banks might be overvalued.

Suggested Citation

  • Michela Pelizza & Klaus R. Schenk-Hoppé, 2020. "Pricing Defaulted Italian Mortgages," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:2:p:31-:d:318795
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/13/2/31/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/13/2/31/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qi, Min & Zhao, Xinlei, 2011. "Comparison of modeling methods for Loss Given Default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2842-2855, November.
    2. Hui Ye & Anthony Bellotti, 2020. "Erratum: Hui Ye, Anthony Bellotti. Modelling Recovery Rates for Non-Performing Loans. Risks 7 (2019): 19," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-1, April.
    3. Hui Ye & Anthony Bellotti, 2019. "Modelling Recovery Rates for Non-Performing Loans," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Camilla Ferretti & Giampaolo Gabbi & Piero Ganugi & Federica Sist & Pietro Vozzella, 2019. "Credit Risk Migration and Economic Cycles," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, October.
    5. Frontczak, Robert & Rostek, Stefan, 2015. "Modeling loss given default with stochastic collateral," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 162-170.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. Roberto Blanco & Ricardo Gimeno, 2012. "Determinants of default ratios in the segment of loans to households in Spain," Working Papers 1210, Banco de España.
    8. Matteo Accornero & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Luisa Carpinelli & Alberto Maria Sorrentino, 2017. "Non-performing loans and the supply of bank credit: evidence from Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 374, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Frank J. Fabozzi & Robert J. Shiller & Radu S. Tunaru, 2010. "Property Derivatives for Managing European Real†Estate Risk," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(1), pages 8-26, January.
    10. Silvia Giacomelli & Tommaso Orlando & Giacomo Rodano, 2018. "Real estate foreclosures: their functioning and the effects of recent reforms," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 448, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Frank J. Fabozzi & Robert J. Shiller & Radu S. Tunaru, 2012. "A Pricing Framework for Real Estate Derivatives," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(5), pages 762-789, November.
    12. Gao, Andre & Lin, Zhenguo & Na, Carrie Fangzhou, 2009. "Housing market dynamics: Evidence of mean reversion and downward rigidity," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 256-266, September.
    13. Magri, Silvia & Pico, Raffaella, 2011. "The rise of risk-based pricing of mortgage interest rates in Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1277-1290, May.
    14. Christopher Mayer & Karen Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The Rise in Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
    15. Josep Perello & Ronnie Sircar & Jaume Masoliver, 2008. "Option pricing under stochastic volatility: the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model," Papers 0804.2589, arXiv.org, revised May 2008.
    16. Leow, Mindy & Mues, Christophe, 2012. "Predicting loss given default (LGD) for residential mortgage loans: A two-stage model and empirical evidence for UK bank data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 183-195.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rita Yi Man Li, 2022. "Housing Real Estate Economics and Finance," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-3, March.
    2. Amit K. Sinha, 2021. "The reliability of geometric Brownian motion forecasts of S&P500 index values," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1444-1462, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuta Tanoue & Satoshi Yamashita & Hideaki Nagahata, 2020. "Comparison study of two-step LGD estimation model with probability machines," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(3), pages 155-177, September.
    2. Yao, Xiao & Crook, Jonathan & Andreeva, Galina, 2017. "Is it obligor or instrument that explains recovery rate: Evidence from US corporate bond," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Shi, Baofeng & Zhao, Xue & Wu, Bi & Dong, Yizhe, 2019. "Credit rating and microfinance lending decisions based on loss given default (LGD)," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 124-129.
    4. Xia, Yufei & Zhao, Junhao & He, Lingyun & Li, Yinguo & Yang, Xiaoli, 2021. "Forecasting loss given default for peer-to-peer loans via heterogeneous stacking ensemble approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1590-1613.
    5. Radu Tunaru, 2015. "Model Risk in Financial Markets:From Financial Engineering to Risk Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9524, January.
    6. Miller, Patrick & Töws, Eugen, 2018. "Loss given default adjusted workout processes for leases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 189-201.
    7. Chen, Xiaowei & Wang, Gang & Zhang, Xiangting, 2019. "Modeling recovery rate for leveraged loans," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 231-241.
    8. Christophe Hurlin & Jérémy Leymarie & Antoine Patin, 2018. "Loss functions for LGD model comparison," Working Papers halshs-01516147, HAL.
    9. Mocetti, Sauro & Viviano, Eliana, 2017. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-63.
    10. Thamayanthi Chellathurai, 2017. "Probability Density Of Recovery Rate Given Default Of A Firm’S Debt And Its Constituent Tranches," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(04), pages 1-34, June.
    11. Tong, Edward N.C. & Mues, Christophe & Thomas, Lyn, 2013. "A zero-adjusted gamma model for mortgage loan loss given default," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 548-562.
    12. Barbagli, Matteo & Vrins, Frédéric, 2023. "Accounting for PD-LGD dependency: A tractable extension to the Basel ASRF framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Emily Johnston Ross & Lynn Shibut, 2021. "Loss Given Default, Loan Seasoning and Financial Fragility: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans at Failed Banks," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 630-661, November.
    14. Konstantin Gorgen & Abdolreza Nazemi & Melanie Schienle, 2022. "Robust Knockoffs for Controlling False Discoveries With an Application to Bond Recovery Rates," Papers 2206.06026, arXiv.org.
    15. Hurlin, Christophe & Leymarie, Jérémy & Patin, Antoine, 2018. "Loss functions for Loss Given Default model comparison," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 348-360.
    16. Tamás Kristóf, 2021. "Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    17. Stanga, Irina & Vlahu, Razvan & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    18. Fabrizio Venditti & Francesco Columba & Alberto Maria Sorrentino, 2018. "A risk dashboard for the Italian economy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 425, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Spain: Vulnerabilities of Private Sector Balance Sheets and Risks to the Financial Sector Technical Notes," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/140, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Dimitris Andriosopoulos & Michalis Doumpos & Panos M. Pardalos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2019. "Computational approaches and data analytics in financial services: A literature review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(10), pages 1581-1599, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:2:p:31-:d:318795. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.