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Forecasting of Realised Volatility with the Random Forests Algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Chuong Luong

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Computing and Mathematical Sciences, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth 6845, Western Australia, Australia)

  • Nikolai Dokuchaev

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Computing and Mathematical Sciences, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth 6845, Western Australia, Australia)

Abstract

The paper addresses the forecasting of realised volatility for financial time series using the heterogeneous autoregressive model (HAR) and machine learning techniques. We consider an extended version of the existing HAR model with included purified implied volatility. For this extended model, we apply the random forests algorithm for the forecasting of the direction and the magnitude of the realised volatility. In experiments with historical high frequency data, we demonstrate improvements of forecast accuracy for the proposed model.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuong Luong & Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2018. "Forecasting of Realised Volatility with the Random Forests Algorithm," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:11:y:2018:i:4:p:61-:d:175017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Frank, Johannes, 2023. "Forecasting realized volatility in turbulent times using temporal fusion transformers," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 03/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    3. Zhu, Haibin & Bai, Lu & He, Lidan & Liu, Zhi, 2023. "Forecasting realized volatility with machine learning: Panel data perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 251-271.
    4. Mst. Shapna Akter & Hossain Shahriar & Reaz Chowdhury & M. R. C. Mahdy, 2022. "Forecasting the Risk Factor of Frontier Markets: A Novel Stacking Ensemble of Neural Network Approach," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-23, August.
    5. Thanasis Stengos, 2019. "Nonparametric Econometric Methods and Applications," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-3, November.
    6. Nikita Medvedev & Zhiguang Wang, 2022. "Multistep forecast of the implied volatility surface using deep learning," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 645-667, April.
    7. Jung-sik Hong & Hyeongyu Yeo & Nam-Wook Cho & Taeuk Ahn, 2018. "Identification of Core Suppliers Based on E-Invoice Data Using Supervised Machine Learning," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, October.
    8. Yicun Li & Yuanyang Teng, 2023. "The Fama–French Five-Factor Model with Hurst Exponents Compared with Machine Learning Methods," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-19, July.
    9. Tiago E. Pratas & Filipe R. Ramos & Lihki Rubio, 2023. "Forecasting bitcoin volatility: exploring the potential of deep learning," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(2), pages 285-305, June.
    10. Takuo Higashide & Katsuyuki Tanaka & Takuji Kinkyo & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2021. "New Dataset for Forecasting Realized Volatility: Is the Tokyo Stock Exchange Co-Location Dataset Helpful for Expansion of the Heterogeneous Autoregressive Model in the Japanese Stock Market?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, May.

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