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Applications of Distress Prediction Models: What Have We Learned After 50 Years from the Z-Score Models?

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  • Edward I. Altman

    (Leonard N. Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012, USA)

Abstract

Fifty years ago, I published the initial, classic version of the Z-score bankruptcy prediction models. This multivariate statistical model has remained perhaps the most well-known, and more importantly, most used technique for providing an early warning signal of firm financial distress by academics and practitioners on a global basis. It also has been used by scholars as a benchmark of credit risk measurement in countless empirical studies. Practical applications of the Altman Z-score model have also been numerous and can be divided into two main categories: (1) from an external analytical standpoint, and (2) from an internal to the distressed firm viewpoint. This paper discusses a number of applications from the former’s standpoint and in doing so, we hope, also provides a roadmap for extensions beyond those already identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward I. Altman, 2018. "Applications of Distress Prediction Models: What Have We Learned After 50 Years from the Z-Score Models?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-15, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:3:p:70-:d:161643
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gilson, Stuart C, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Capital Structure Choice: Evidence from Financially Distressed Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 161-196, March.
    2. Edward I. Altman & Ben Branch, 2015. "The Bankruptcy System's Chapter 22 Recidivism Problem: How Serious is It?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    4. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    5. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
    6. Altman, Edward I. & Brenner, Menachem, 1981. "Information Effects and Stock Market Response to Signs of Firm Deterioration," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 35-51, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nora Muñoz-Izquierdo & María-del-Mar Camacho-Miñano & María-Jesús Segovia-Vargas & David Pascual-Ezama, 2019. "Is the External Audit Report Useful for Bankruptcy Prediction? Evidence Using Artificial Intelligence," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Fuentes González, Fabián & Webb, Janette & Sharmina, Maria & Hannon, Matthew & Braunholtz-Speight, Timothy & Pappas, Dimitrios, 2022. "Local energy businesses in the United Kingdom: Clusters and localism determinants based on financial ratios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    3. Vavrek, Roman & Vozárová, Ivana Kravčáková & Kotulič, Rastislav & Adamišin, Peter & Dubravská, Mariana & Ivanková, Viera, 2022. "Assessing the financial health of agricultural enterprises incorporating the spatial dimension," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 25(3), March.
    4. Daniela Rybárová & Helena Majdúchová & Peter Štetka & Darina Luščíková, 2021. "Reliability and Accuracy of Alternative Default Prediction Models: Evidence from Slovakia," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-33, November.
    5. Anna Kania Widiatami & Nanny Dewi Tanzil & Cahya Irawadi & Ahmad Nurkhin, 2020. "Audit Committee¡¯s Role in Moderating the Effect of Financial Distress Towards Going Concern Audit Opinion," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(4), pages 432-442, July.
    6. Mirza, Nawazish & Rahat, Birjees & Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas, 2023. "Impact of Covid-19 on corporate solvency and possible policy responses in the EU," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 181-190.
    7. Tomasz Korol, 2019. "Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, December.

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