IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i17p10672-d899117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

County-Level Life Expectancy Change: A Novel Metric for Monitoring Public Health

Author

Listed:
  • Aruna Chandran

    (Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
    Current address: 615 N. Wolfe Street, W6501, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.)

  • Ritika Purbey

    (Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA)

  • Kathryn M. Leifheit

    (Department of Health Policy and Management, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA)

  • Kirsten McGhie Evans

    (Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA)

  • Jocelyn Velasquez Baez

    (Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA)

  • Keri N. Althoff

    (Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA)

Abstract

Life expectancy (LE) is a core measure of population health. Studies have confirmed the predictive importance of modifiable determinants on LE, but less is known about their association with LE change over time at the US county level. In addition, we explore the predictive association of LE change with COVID-19 mortality. We used a linear regression model to calculate county-level annual LE change from 2011 to 2016, and categorized LE change (≤−0.1 years change per year as decreasing, ≥0.1 years as increasing, otherwise no change). A multinomial regression model was used to determine the association between modifiable determinants of health indicators from the County Health Rankings and LE change. A Poisson regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between change in life expectancy and COVID-19 mortality through September 2021. Among 2943 counties, several modifiable determinants of health were significantly associated with odds of being in increasing LE or decreasing LE counties, including adult smoking, obesity, unemployment, and proportion of children in poverty. The presence of an increasing LE in 2011–2016, as compared to no change, was significantly associated with a 5% decrease in COVID-19 mortality between 2019 and 2021 (β = 0.953, 95% CI: 0.943, 0.963). We demonstrated that change in LE at the county level is a useful metric for tracking public health progress, measuring the impact of public health initiatives, and gauging preparedness and vulnerability for future public health emergencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Aruna Chandran & Ritika Purbey & Kathryn M. Leifheit & Kirsten McGhie Evans & Jocelyn Velasquez Baez & Keri N. Althoff, 2022. "County-Level Life Expectancy Change: A Novel Metric for Monitoring Public Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-9, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:17:p:10672-:d:899117
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/17/10672/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/17/10672/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dobis, Elizabeth A. & Stephens, Heather M. & Skidmore, Mark & Goetz, Stephan J., 2020. "Explaining the spatial variation in American life expectancy," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    2. Anne Case & Angua Deaton, 2015. "Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century," Working Papers 15078.full.pdf, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Cheung & Joseph Marchand & Patricia Mark, 2022. "Loss of Life and Labor Productivity: The Canadian Opioid Crisis," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 703(1), pages 303-323, September.
    2. Wim Naudé, 2016. "Is European Entrepreneurship in Crisis?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(03), pages 03-07, October.
    3. Dow, Wiiliam H & Godoey, Anna & Lowenstein, Christopher A & Reich, Michael, 2019. "Can Economic Policies Reduce Deaths of Despair? Working Paper #104-19," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt14f015df, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    4. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & von Hinke, Stephanie & Lindeboom, Maarten & Lissdaniels, Johannes & Sundquist, Jan & Sundquist, Kristina, 2017. "Mortality and the business cycle: Evidence from individual and aggregated data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 61-70.
    5. Wang, Huixia & Wang, Chenggang & Halliday, Timothy J., 2018. "Health and health inequality during the great recession: Evidence from the PSID," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 17-30.
    6. Fernández Guerrico, Sofía, 2021. "The effects of trade-induced worker displacement on health and mortality in Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Aline Bütikofer & René Karadakic & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2021. "Income Inequality and Mortality: A Norwegian Perspective," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(1), pages 193-221, March.
    8. Leila Bengali & Mary C. Daly & Olivia Lofton & Robert G. Valletta, 2021. "The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and Their Families since the Great Recession," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 695(1), pages 123-142, May.
    9. Haan, Peter & Hammerschmid, Anna & Schmieder, Julia, 2019. "Mortality in midlife for subgroups in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14.
    10. Ilaria Natali & Mathias Dewatripont & Victor Ginsburgh & Michel Goldman & Patrick Legros, 2023. "Prescription opioids and economic hardship in France," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(9), pages 1473-1504, December.
    11. Lucie Schmidt & Lara D. Shore-Sheppard & Tara Watson, 2020. "The Impact of the ACA Medicaid Expansion on Disability Program Applications," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(4), pages 444-476.
    12. Chenggang Wang & Huixia Wang & Timothy J. Halliday, 2017. "Health and Health Inequality during the Great Recession: Evidence from the PSID," Working Papers 201703, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    13. Malat, Jennifer & Mayorga-Gallo, Sarah & Williams, David R., 2018. "The effects of whiteness on the health of whites in the USA," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 148-156.
    14. Irena Dushi & Leora Friedberg & Anthony Webb, 2021. "Is the Adjustment of Social Security Benefits Actuarially Fair, and If So, for Whom?," SCEPA working paper series. 2021-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    15. Sparke, Matthew, 2017. "Austerity and the embodiment of neoliberalism as ill-health: Towards a theory of biological sub-citizenship," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 287-295.
    16. Gihleb, Rania & Giuntella, Osea & Zhang, Ning, 2020. "Prescription drug monitoring programs and neonatal outcomes," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    17. Miller, Charlotte E. & Vasan, Ramachandran S., 2021. "The southern rural health and mortality penalty: A review of regional health inequities in the United States," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    18. Hui Zheng & Jonathan Dirlam & Paola Echave, 2021. "Divergent Trends in the Effects of Early Life Factors on Adult Health," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(5), pages 1119-1148, October.
    19. Dorn, David & Autor, David & Hanson, Gordon, 2017. "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men," CEPR Discussion Papers 11878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Hannes Schwandt & Janet Currie & Marlies Bär & James Banks & Paola Bertoli & Aline Bütikofer & Sarah Cattan & Beatrice Zong-Ying Chao & Claudia Costa & Libertad González & Veronica Grembi & Kristiina , 2021. "Inequality in mortality between Black and White Americans by age, place, and cause and in comparison to Europe, 1990 to 2018," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(40), pages 2104684118-, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:17:p:10672-:d:899117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.