IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i5p1224-d1350879.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Energy Poverty in European Countries: The Effect of Increasing Energy Commodities Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Alfonso Carfora

    (Department of Economics and Law, University of Macerata, 62100 Macerata, Italy)

  • Giuseppe Scandurra

    (Department of Management Studies and Quantitative Methods, University of Naples Parthenope, 80133 Naples, Italy)

Abstract

The impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating in many countries, increasing household energy poverty. Lockdown measures have brought the EU economies into recession phases and forced people to stay confined to their homes, aggravating these issues. From the second half of 2021, when the worst seemed behind us, a new threat has appeared threatening economic recovery: the inflationary process in energy prices. This paper aims to verify the effects on energy poverty in European countries following the economic crisis generated by COVID-19 and the current inflationary scenario due to the increase in energy commodity prices through dynamic factor models, estimating the time it will take for energy poverty to return to levels before the shocks that occurred over the past two years. The outcomes show that the overall rise in energy prices (in particular gas) that unexpectedly affected European countries modifies the forecast scenarios, delaying, at best, the first improvements, initially expected as early as 2021, until after 2022.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfonso Carfora & Giuseppe Scandurra, 2024. "Forecasting Energy Poverty in European Countries: The Effect of Increasing Energy Commodities Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:5:p:1224-:d:1350879
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/5/1224/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/5/1224/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlo Andrea Bollino & Fabrizio Botti, 2017. "Energy Poverty in Europe: A Multidimensional Approach," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(283), pages 449-472.
    2. Blanka Tundys & Agnieszka Bretyn, 2023. "Energy Transition Scenarios for Energy Poverty Alleviation: Analysis of the Delphi Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-20, February.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    4. Fatih Birol, 2007. "Energy Economics: A Place for Energy Poverty in the Agenda?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-6.
    5. Fan Wang & Yao Lu & Jin Li & Juan Ni, 2021. "Evaluating Environmentally Sustainable Development Based on the PSR Framework and Variable Weigh Analytic Hierarchy Process," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Stefan Bouzarovski, 2014. "Energy poverty in the European Union: landscapes of vulnerability," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 276-289, May.
    7. Franz Fuerst & Dimitra Kavarnou & Ramandeep Singh & Hassan Adan, 2020. "Determinants of energy consumption and exposure to energy price risk: a UK study [Determinanten des Energieverbrauchs und Energiepreisrisiko: Eine Studie aus Großbritannien]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 6(1), pages 65-80, April.
    8. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carfora, Alfonso & Scandurra, Giuseppe & Thomas, Antonio, 2022. "Forecasting the COVID-19 effects on energy poverty across EU member states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    2. John M. Polimeni & Mihaela Simionescu & Raluca I. Iorgulescu, 2022. "Energy Poverty and Personal Health in the EU," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Andrea Boeri & Valentina Gianfrate & Saveria Olga Murielle Boulanger & Martina Massari, 2020. "Future Design Approaches for Energy Poverty: Users Profiling and Services for No-Vulnerable Condition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Bezerra, Paula & Cruz, Talita & Mazzone, Antonella & Lucena, André F.P. & De Cian, Enrica & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2022. "The multidimensionality of energy poverty in Brazil: A historical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    5. Emmanuel Anyigbah & Yusheng Kong & Bless Kofi Edziah & Ahotovi Thomas Ahoto & Wilhelmina Seyome Ahiaku, 2023. "Board Characteristics and Corporate Sustainability Reporting: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-26, February.
    6. Hosan, Shahadat & Rahman, Md Matiar & Karmaker, Shamal Chandra & Saha, Bidyut Baran, 2023. "Energy subsidies and energy technology innovation: Policies for polygeneration systems diffusion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    7. Gangopadhyay, Partha & Jain, Siddharth & Bakry, Walid, 2022. "In search of a rational foundation for the massive IT boom in the Australian banking industry: Can the IT boom really drive relationship banking?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Dong, Kangyin & Sun, Renjin & Li, Hui & Liao, Hua, 2018. "Does natural gas consumption mitigate CO2 emissions: Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for 14 Asia-Pacific countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 419-429.
    9. László KÓNYA, 2023. "Per Capita Income Convergence and Divergence of Selected OECD Countries to and from the US: A Reappraisal for the period 1900-2018," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 23(1), pages 33-56.
    10. Palm, Franz C. & Smeekes, Stephan & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2011. "Cross-sectional dependence robust block bootstrap panel unit root tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 85-104, July.
    11. In Choi, 2019. "Unit Root Tests for Dependent Micropanels," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 145-167, June.
    12. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nasreen, Samia & Ahmed, Khalid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Trade openness–carbon emissions nexus: The importance of turning points of trade openness for country panels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 221-232.
    13. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    14. Nusair, Salah A., 2019. "Oil price and inflation dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 997-1011.
    15. Aladejare, Samson Adeniyi, 2022. "Natural resource rents, globalisation and environmental degradation: New insight from 5 richest African economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Felipa de Mello-Sampayo & Sofia de Sousa-Vale, 2014. "Financing Health Care Expenditure in the OECD Countries: Evidence from a Heterogeneous, Cross-Sectional Dependent Panel," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 207-225, March.
    17. Dierk Herzer & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "Inequality and growth: evidence from panel cointegration," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 10(4), pages 489-503, December.
    18. Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Pao Wu & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Are house prices in South Africa really nonstationary? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 32-53, January.
    19. Usman, Muhammad & Makhdum, Muhammad Sohail Amjad, 2021. "What abates ecological footprint in BRICS-T region? Exploring the influence of renewable energy, non-renewable energy, agriculture, forest area and financial development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 12-28.
    20. Gautam, Tej K. & Paudel, Krishna P., 2018. "The demand for natural gas in the Northeastern United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 890-898.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:5:p:1224-:d:1350879. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.