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Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations for the Assessment of Impacts on Precipitation, Flow Rate and Electricity Generation in the Xingu River Basin in the Brazilian Amazon

Author

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  • Edmundo Wallace Monteiro Lucas

    (Academic Unit of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grand 58429-900, Brazil
    National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), Eixo Monumental Sul Via S1 Sudoeste, Brasília 70680-900, Brazil)

  • Fabrício Daniel dos Santos Silva

    (Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57072-900, Brazil)

  • Francisco de Assis Salviano de Souza

    (Academic Unit of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grand 58429-900, Brazil)

  • David Duarte Cavalcante Pinto

    (Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57072-900, Brazil
    Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA 92521, USA)

  • Heliofábio Barros Gomes

    (Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57072-900, Brazil)

  • Helber Barros Gomes

    (Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57072-900, Brazil)

  • Mayara Christine Correia Lins

    (Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57072-900, Brazil)

  • Dirceu Luís Herdies

    (National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo 12227-010, Brazil)

Abstract

This study applied regionalization techniques on future climate change scenarios for the precipitation over the Xingu River Basin (XRB) considering the 2021–2080 horizon, in order to assess impacts on the monthly flow rates and possible consequences for electricity generation at the Belo Monte Hydroelectric Power Plant (BMHPP). This is the fourth largest hydroelectric power plant in the world, with a generating capacity of 11,233 MW, and is located in the Brazilian Amazon. Two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and an ensemble comprising four general circulation models (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, MPI-ESM-LR and NORESM1-M) were used. The projections based on both scenarios indicated a considerable decrease in precipitation during the rainy season and a slight increase during the dry season relative to the reference period (1981–2010). According to the results, a reduction in the flow rates in Altamira and in the overall potential for power generation in the BMHPP are also to be expected in both analyzed periods (2021–2050 and 2051–2180). The RCP 4.5 scenario resulted in milder decreases in those variables than the RCP 8.5. Conforming to our findings, a reduction of 21.3% in the annual power generation at the BMHPP is expected until 2080, with a corresponding use of 38.8% of the maximum potential of the facility. These results highlight the need for investments in other renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) in order to compensate for the upcoming losses in the BMHPP production.

Suggested Citation

  • Edmundo Wallace Monteiro Lucas & Fabrício Daniel dos Santos Silva & Francisco de Assis Salviano de Souza & David Duarte Cavalcante Pinto & Heliofábio Barros Gomes & Helber Barros Gomes & Mayara Christ, 2022. "Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations for the Assessment of Impacts on Precipitation, Flow Rate and Electricity Generation in the Xingu River Basin in the Brazilian Amazon," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-26, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:20:p:7698-:d:946279
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    References listed on IDEAS

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