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The Future Role of Forest-Based Biofuels: Industrial Impacts in the Nordic Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Eirik Ogner Jåstad

    (Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway)

  • Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø

    (Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway)

  • Per Kristian Rørstad

    (Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway)

  • Atle Midttun

    (BI Norwegian Business School, Nydalsveien 37, 0484 Oslo, Norway)

  • Judit Sandquist

    (SINTEF Energy Research, 7465 Trondheim, Norway)

  • Erik Trømborg

    (Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway)

Abstract

This study applies a partial equilibrium forest sector model to analyse the impacts of biofuel deployment for road transport in the Nordic countries, when alternative use of the biomass resources and transport sector electrification are considered. We foresee a strong electrification of the transport sector, resulting in a demand for biofuels of approximately 2.5 billion L in 2035 and 1 billion L in 2050 in a 100% fossil-free base scenario. The simultaneous increase in demand from pulping industries and biofuel will cause an overall increase in wood use, of which the biofuels share will constitute approximately 20–25%. The utilization of harvest residues will increase more than 300% compared to the current level, since biofuel production will reallocate some of the current raw material used in district heating. Biofuel consumption in road transport will likely reduce after 2040 due to increasing electrification, but it is plausible that the declining domestic demand will be replaced by increasing demand from international biofuel markets in aviation and shipping. The main uncertainties in the scenarios are the future costs and profitability of forest-based biofuel technologies and the public acceptance of the close to 100 TWh of new renewable electricity production needed for the electrification of Nordic road transport.

Suggested Citation

  • Eirik Ogner Jåstad & Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø & Per Kristian Rørstad & Atle Midttun & Judit Sandquist & Erik Trømborg, 2021. "The Future Role of Forest-Based Biofuels: Industrial Impacts in the Nordic Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:8:p:2073-:d:532508
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Latta, Gregory S. & Sjølie, Hanne K. & Solberg, Birger, 2013. "A review of recent developments and applications of partial equilibrium models of the forest sector," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 350-360.
    2. Mustapha, Walid Fayez & Trømborg, Erik & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland, 2019. "Forest-based biofuel production in the Nordic countries: Modelling of optimal allocation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 45-54.
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    1. Nwachukwu, Chinedu Maureen & Olofsson, Elias & Lundmark, Robert & Wetterlund, Elisabeth, 2022. "Evaluating fuel switching options in the Swedish iron and steel industry under increased competition for forest biomass," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    2. Mariusz Jerzy Stolarski & Paweł Dudziec & Ewelina Olba-Zięty & Paweł Stachowicz & Michał Krzyżaniak, 2022. "Forest Dendromass as Energy Feedstock: Diversity of Properties and Composition Depending on Systematic Genus and Organ," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-60, February.

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