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Prospects for the Norwegian Forest Sector: A Green Shift to Come?

Author

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  • Trömborg, Erik
  • JÃ¥stad, Eirik Ogner
  • Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland
  • Rørstad, Per Kristian

Abstract

The forest-based sectors are in a period of significant transition due to climate change mitigation efforts, changes in forest products demand and other external mega-trends. This study applies a three-step Delphi process to identify the main drivers and formulate possible scenarios for the development of the Norwegian forest sector towards 2040. The impacts of these scenarios are analyzed with a partial equilibrium forest sector model covering the Nordic countries. Experts in the sectors expected a further decrease in demand for printing and writing paper, but a significant increase in wood-based biofuel production. A “conservative†scenario, with a prolongation of current trends and no wood-based biofuel production, leads to declining wood prices but still slightly increased harvest levels in the Nordic countries—especially in Norway, due to increased timber volumes available for harvest. In a “green†scenario, the production of wood-based biofuels and new forest products increased, leading to higher wood prices from the end of the next decade. This will further decrease the production of printing paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Trömborg, Erik & JÃ¥stad, Eirik Ogner & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & Rørstad, Per Kristian, 2020. "Prospects for the Norwegian Forest Sector: A Green Shift to Come?," Journal of Forest Economics, now publishers, vol. 35(4), pages 305-336, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jnljfe:112.00000517
    DOI: 10.1561/112.00000517
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    Cited by:

    1. Heiskanen, Aleksi & Hurmekoski, Elias & Toppinen, Anne & Näyhä, Annukka, 2022. "Exploring the unknowns – State of the art in qualitative forest-based sector foresight research," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Eirik Ogner Jåstad & Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø & Per Kristian Rørstad & Atle Midttun & Judit Sandquist & Erik Trømborg, 2021. "The Future Role of Forest-Based Biofuels: Industrial Impacts in the Nordic Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, April.

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