IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i3p560-d485086.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pathways toward a Decarbonized Future—Impact on Security of Supply and System Stability in a Sustainable German Energy System

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Metzger

    (Technology, Research in Energy and Electronics, Siemens AG, Otto-Hahn Ring 6, 81739 Munich, Germany)

  • Mathias Duckheim

    (Technology, Research in Energy and Electronics, Siemens AG, Otto-Hahn Ring 6, 81739 Munich, Germany)

  • Marco Franken

    (Institute of High Voltage Equipment and Grids, Digitalization and Energy Economics, RWTH Aachen University, Schinkelstraße 6, 52062 Aachen, Germany)

  • Hans Joerg Heger

    (Technology, Research in Energy and Electronics, Siemens AG, Otto-Hahn Ring 6, 81739 Munich, Germany)

  • Matthias Huber

    (Technology, Research in Energy and Electronics, Siemens AG, Otto-Hahn Ring 6, 81739 Munich, Germany
    European Campus Rottal-Inn, Deggendorf Institute of Technology, 84347 Pfarrkirchen, Germany)

  • Markus Knittel

    (Institute of High Voltage Equipment and Grids, Digitalization and Energy Economics, RWTH Aachen University, Schinkelstraße 6, 52062 Aachen, Germany)

  • Till Kolster

    (Technology, Research in Energy and Electronics, Siemens AG, Otto-Hahn Ring 6, 81739 Munich, Germany)

  • Martin Kueppers

    (Technology, Research in Energy and Electronics, Siemens AG, Otto-Hahn Ring 6, 81739 Munich, Germany)

  • Carola Meier

    (Institute of High Voltage Equipment and Grids, Digitalization and Energy Economics, RWTH Aachen University, Schinkelstraße 6, 52062 Aachen, Germany)

  • Dieter Most

    (Technology, Research in Energy and Electronics, Siemens AG, Otto-Hahn Ring 6, 81739 Munich, Germany)

  • Simon Paulus

    (Technology, Research in Energy and Electronics, Siemens AG, Otto-Hahn Ring 6, 81739 Munich, Germany)

  • Lothar Wyrwoll

    (Institute of High Voltage Equipment and Grids, Digitalization and Energy Economics, RWTH Aachen University, Schinkelstraße 6, 52062 Aachen, Germany)

  • Albert Moser

    (Institute of High Voltage Equipment and Grids, Digitalization and Energy Economics, RWTH Aachen University, Schinkelstraße 6, 52062 Aachen, Germany)

  • Stefan Niessen

    (Technology, Research in Energy and Electronics, Siemens AG, Otto-Hahn Ring 6, 81739 Munich, Germany)

Abstract

Pathways leading to a carbon neutral future for the German energy system have to deal with the expected phase-out of coal-fired power generation, in addition to the shutdown of nuclear power plants and the rapid ramp-up of photovoltaics and wind power generation. An analysis of the expected impact on electricity market, security of supply, and system stability must consider the European context because of the strong coupling—both from an economic and a system operation point of view—through the cross-border power exchange of Germany with its neighbors. This analysis, complemented by options to improve the existing development plans, is the purpose of this paper. We propose a multilevel energy system modeling, including electricity market, network congestion management, and system stability, to identify challenges for the years 2023 and 2035. Out of the results, we would like to highlight the positive role of innovative combined heat and power (CHP) solutions securing power and heat supply, the importance of a network congestion management utilizing flexibility from sector coupling, and the essential network extension plans. Network congestion and reduced security margins will become the new normal. We conclude that future energy systems require expanded flexibilities in combination with forward planning of operation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Metzger & Mathias Duckheim & Marco Franken & Hans Joerg Heger & Matthias Huber & Markus Knittel & Till Kolster & Martin Kueppers & Carola Meier & Dieter Most & Simon Paulus & Lothar Wyrwoll & , 2021. "Pathways toward a Decarbonized Future—Impact on Security of Supply and System Stability in a Sustainable German Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-28, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:3:p:560-:d:485086
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/3/560/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/3/560/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kolster, Till & Krebs, Rainer & Niessen, Stefan & Duckheim, Mathias, 2020. "The contribution of distributed flexibility potentials to corrective transmission system operation for strongly renewable energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    2. Müller, C. & Hoffrichter, A. & Wyrwoll, L. & Schmitt, C. & Trageser, M. & Kulms, T. & Beulertz, D. & Metzger, M. & Duckheim, M. & Huber, M. & Küppers, M. & Most, D. & Paulus, S. & Heger, H.J. & Schnet, 2019. "Modeling framework for planning and operation of multi-modal energy systems in the case of Germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1132-1146.
    3. Keles, Dogan & Yilmaz, Hasan Ümitcan, 2020. "Decarbonisation through coal phase-out in Germany and Europe — Impact on Emissions, electricity prices and power production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Paul L. Joskow, 2011. "Comparing the Costs of Intermittent and Dispatchable Electricity Generating Technologies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 238-241, May.
    5. Pao-Yu Oei & Mario Kendziorski & Philipp Herpich & Claudia Kemfert & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2020. "Klimaschutz statt Kohleschmutz: Woran es beim Kohleausstieg hakt und was zu tun ist," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 127, number pbk148, January.
    6. Bartholdsen, Hans-Karl & Eidens, Anna & Löffler, Konstantin & Seehaus, Frederik & Wejda, Felix & Burandt, Thorsten & Oei, Pao-Yu & Kemfert, Claudia & Hirschhausen, Christian von, 2019. "Pathways for Germany's Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(15), pages 1-33.
    7. Dirk Hladik & Christoph Fraunholz & Matthias Kühnbach & Pia Manz & Robert Kunze, 2020. "Insights on Germany’s Future Congestion Management from a Multi-Model Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-27, August.
    8. Dominik Kryzia & Michał Kopacz & Katarzyna Kryzia, 2020. "The Valuation of the Operational Flexibility of the Energy Investment Project Based on a Gas-Fired Power Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.
    9. Brynolf, Selma & Taljegard, Maria & Grahn, Maria & Hansson, Julia, 2018. "Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1887-1905.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cramer, Wilhelm & Schumann, Klemens & Andres, Michael & Vertgewall, Chris & Monti, Antonello & Schreck, Sebastian & Metzger, Michael & Jessenberger, Stefan & Klaus, Joachim & Brunner, Christoph & Heri, 2021. "A simulative framework for a multi-regional assessment of local energy markets – A case of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in Germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    2. David Kroger & Milijana Teodosic & Christian Rehtanz, 2023. "Modeling and Contribution of Flexible Heating Systems for Transmission Grid Congestion Management," Papers 2310.15933, arXiv.org.
    3. Henrik Schwaeppe & Luis Böttcher & Klemens Schumann & Lukas Hein & Philipp Hälsig & Simon Thams & Paula Baquero Lozano & Albert Moser, 2022. "Analyzing Intersectoral Benefits of District Heating in an Integrated Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-31, March.
    4. Schmitt, Carlo & Schumann, Klemens & Kollenda, Katharina & Blank, Andreas & Rebenaque, Olivier & Dronne, Théo & Martin, Arnault & Vassilopoulos, Philippe & Roques, Fabien & Moser, Albert, 2022. "How will local energy markets influence the pan-European day-ahead market and transmission systems? A case study for local markets in France and Germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    5. Karolina Talarek & Anna Knitter-Piątkowska & Tomasz Garbowski, 2022. "Wind Parks in Poland—New Challenges and Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-25, September.
    6. Roxana Voicu-Dorobanțu & Clara Volintiru & Maria-Floriana Popescu & Vlad Nerău & George Ștefan, 2021. "Tackling Complexity of the Just Transition in the EU: Evidence from Romania," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
    7. Lothar Wyrwoll & Moritz Nobis & Stephan Raths & Albert Moser, 2021. "Evolution of Fundamental Price Determination within Electricity Market Simulations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thimet, P.J. & Mavromatidis, G., 2022. "Review of model-based electricity system transition scenarios: An analysis for Switzerland, Germany, France, and Italy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Morgenthaler, Simon & Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm & Witthaut, Dirk, 2020. "Optimal system layout and locations for fully renewable high temperature co-electrolysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    3. Morgenthaler, Simon & Dünzen, Justus & Stadler, Ingo & Witthaut, Dirk, 2021. "Three stages in the co-transformation of the energy and mobility sectors," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Neupane, Deependra & Kafle, Sagar & Karki, Kaji Ram & Kim, Dae Hyun & Pradhan, Prajal, 2022. "Solar and wind energy potential assessment at provincial level in Nepal: Geospatial and economic analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 278-291.
    5. Durmaz, Tunç, 2016. "Precautionary Storage in Electricity Markets," Discussion Papers 2016/5, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    6. Carsten Helm & Mathias Mier, 2020. "Steering the Energy Transition in a World of Intermittent Electricity Supply: Optimal Subsidies and Taxes for Renewables Storage," ifo Working Paper Series 330, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Behrang Shirizadeh, Quentin Perrier, and Philippe Quirion, 2022. "How Sensitive are Optimal Fully Renewable Power Systems to Technology Cost Uncertainty?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    8. Keppler, Jan Horst & Quemin, Simon & Saguan, Marcelo, 2022. "Why the sustainable provision of low-carbon electricity needs hybrid markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    9. Simshauser, P., 2019. "On the impact of government-initiated CfD’s in Australia’s National Electricity Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1901, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Karsten Neuhoff & Nils May & Jörn C. Richstein, 2018. "Renewable Energy Policy in the Age of Falling Technology Costs," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1746, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Emblemsvåg, Jan, 2022. "Wind energy is not sustainable when balanced by fossil energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    12. Peng, Benhong & Zhao, Yinyin & Elahi, Ehsan & Wan, Anxia, 2023. "Can third-party market cooperation solve the dilemma of emissions reduction? A case study of energy investment project conflict analysis in the context of carbon neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    13. Ralf Peters & Maximilian Decker & Janos Lucian Breuer & Remzi Can Samsun & Detlef Stolten, 2024. "Ramping-Up Electro-Fuel Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-47, April.
    14. Alexis Tantet & Philippe Drobinski, 2021. "A Minimal System Cost Minimization Model for Variable Renewable Energy Integration: Application to France and Comparison to Mean-Variance Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-38, August.
    15. Navas-Anguita, Zaira & García-Gusano, Diego & Iribarren, Diego, 2019. "A review of techno-economic data for road transportation fuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 11-26.
    16. Mantas Svazas & Yuriy Bilan & Valentinas Navickas, 2024. "Research Directions of the Energy Transformation Impact on the Economy in the Aspect of Asset Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, March.
    17. Gawel, Erik & Lehmann, Paul & Purkus, Alexandra & Söderholm, Patrik & Witte, Katherina, 2017. "Rationales for technology-specific RES support and their relevance for German policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 16-26.
    18. Christoph Sejkora & Johannes Lindorfer & Lisa Kühberger & Thomas Kienberger, 2021. "Interlinking the Renewable Electricity and Gas Sectors: A Techno-Economic Case Study for Austria," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-38, October.
    19. Pejman Bahramian, 2021. "Integration of wind power into an electricity system using pumped-storage: Economic challenges and stakeholder impacts," Working Paper 1480, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    20. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell, 2015. "The US Electricity Industry After 20 Years of Restructuring," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 437-463, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:3:p:560-:d:485086. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.