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Changes in Thornthwaite Moisture Index and Reactive Soil Movements under Current and Future Climate Scenarios—A Case Study

Author

Listed:
  • Md Rajibul Karim

    (UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia)

  • Md Mizanur Rahman

    (UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia)

  • Khoi Nguyen

    (UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia)

  • Donald Cameron

    (UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia)

  • Asif Iqbal

    (UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia)

  • Isaac Ahenkorah

    (UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia)

Abstract

Expansive soils go through significant volume changes due to seasonal moisture variations resulting in ground movements. The ground movement related problems are likely to worsen in the future due to climate change. It is important to understand and incorporate likely future changes in design to ensure the resilience of structures built on such soils. However, there has been a limited amount of work quantifying the effect of climate change on expansive soils movement and related behaviour of structures. The Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) is one of the commonly used climate classifiers in quantifying the effect of atmospheric boundary on soil behaviour. Using the long-term weather data and predicted future changes under different emission scenarios, a series of TMI maps are developed for South Australia. Potential changes in ground movement are then estimated for a selected area using a simplified methodology where the effect of future climate is captured through changes in TMI. Results indicate that South Australia is likely to face a significant reduction in TMI under all emission scenarios considered in this study. The changes in TMI will lead to a considerable increase in potential ground movement which will influence the behaviour of structures built on them and in some areas may lead to premature failure if not considered in the design.

Suggested Citation

  • Md Rajibul Karim & Md Mizanur Rahman & Khoi Nguyen & Donald Cameron & Asif Iqbal & Isaac Ahenkorah, 2021. "Changes in Thornthwaite Moisture Index and Reactive Soil Movements under Current and Future Climate Scenarios—A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:20:p:6760-:d:658443
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Md Mizanur Rahman & Simon Beecham & Asif Iqbal & Md Rajibul Karim & Abu Taher Zillur Rabbi, 2020. "Sustainability Assessment of Using Recycled Aggregates in Concrete Block Pavements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Md Mizanur Rahman & Reena N. Hora & Isaac Ahenkorah & Simon Beecham & Md Rajibul Karim & Asif Iqbal, 2020. "State-of-the-Art Review of Microbial-Induced Calcite Precipitation and Its Sustainability in Engineering Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-43, August.
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    1. Bikash Devkota & Md Rajibul Karim & Md Mizanur Rahman & Hoang Bao Khoi Nguyen, 2022. "Accounting for Expansive Soil Movement in Geotechnical Design—A State-of-the-Art Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-27, November.

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