IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v10y2017i4p490-d95031.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research and Application of Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on an Optimal Feature Selection System—A Case Study on Electrical Load Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Yunxuan Dong

    (School of Mathematics and Statics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Jianzhou Wang

    (School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance & Economics, Dalian 116000, China)

  • Chen Wang

    (School of Mathematics and Statics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Zhenhai Guo

    (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10029, China)

Abstract

The process of modernizing smart grid prominently increases the complexity and uncertainty in scheduling and operation of power systems, and, in order to develop a more reliable, flexible, efficient and resilient grid, electrical load forecasting is not only an important key but is still a difficult and challenging task as well. In this paper, a short-term electrical load forecasting model, with a unit for feature learning named Pyramid System and recurrent neural networks, has been developed and it can effectively promote the stability and security of the power grid. Nine types of methods for feature learning are compared in this work to select the best one for learning target, and two criteria have been employed to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction intervals. Furthermore, an electrical load forecasting method based on recurrent neural networks has been formed to achieve the relational diagram of historical data, and, to be specific, the proposed techniques are applied to electrical load forecasting using the data collected from New South Wales, Australia. The simulation results show that the proposed hybrid models can not only satisfactorily approximate the actual value but they are also able to be effective tools in the planning of smart grids.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunxuan Dong & Jianzhou Wang & Chen Wang & Zhenhai Guo, 2017. "Research and Application of Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on an Optimal Feature Selection System—A Case Study on Electrical Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-27, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:4:p:490-:d:95031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/4/490/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/4/490/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hameed, Z. & Hong, Y.S. & Cho, Y.M. & Ahn, S.H. & Song, C.K., 2009. "Condition monitoring and fault detection of wind turbines and related algorithms: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-39, January.
    2. Li, Y. & Castro, A.M. & Martin, J.E. & Sinokrot, T. & Prescott, W. & Carrica, P.M., 2017. "Coupled computational fluid dynamics/multibody dynamics method for wind turbine aero-servo-elastic simulation including drivetrain dynamics," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1037-1051.
    3. Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2011. "Electric load forecasting by seasonal recurrent SVR (support vector regression) with chaotic artificial bee colony algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5568-5578.
    4. Bahrami, Saadat & Hooshmand, Rahmat-Allah & Parastegari, Moein, 2014. "Short term electric load forecasting by wavelet transform and grey model improved by PSO (particle swarm optimization) algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 434-442.
    5. Mo, Shuai & Zhang, Yidu & Wu, Qiong & Matsumura, Shigeki & Houjoh, Haruo, 2016. "Load sharing behavior analysis method of wind turbine gearbox in consideration of multiple-errors," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 481-491.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chengshi Tian & Yan Hao, 2018. "A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-34, March.
    2. Shenghua Xiong & Chunfeng Wang & Zhenming Fang & Dan Ma, 2019. "Multi-Step-Ahead Carbon Price Forecasting Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Fast Multi-Output Relevance Vector Regression Optimized by the Multi-Objective Whale Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Guolin & Ding, Kang & Wu, Xiaomeng & Yang, Xiaoqing, 2019. "Dynamics modeling and vibration modulation signal analysis of wind turbine planetary gearbox with a floating sun gear," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 718-729.
    2. Yang, YouLong & Che, JinXing & Li, YanYing & Zhao, YanJun & Zhu, SuLing, 2016. "An incremental electric load forecasting model based on support vector regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 796-808.
    3. Yongquan Dong & Zichen Zhang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2018. "A Hybrid Seasonal Mechanism with a Chaotic Cuckoo Search Algorithm with a Support Vector Regression Model for Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Cheng-Wen Lee & Bing-Yi Lin, 2016. "Application of Hybrid Quantum Tabu Search with Support Vector Regression (SVR) for Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-16, October.
    5. Cheng-Wen Lee & Bing-Yi Lin, 2017. "Applications of the Chaotic Quantum Genetic Algorithm with Support Vector Regression in Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-18, November.
    6. Yan Hong Chen & Wei-Chiang Hong & Wen Shen & Ning Ning Huang, 2016. "Electric Load Forecasting Based on a Least Squares Support Vector Machine with Fuzzy Time Series and Global Harmony Search Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-13, January.
    7. Fanidhar Dewangan & Almoataz Y. Abdelaziz & Monalisa Biswal, 2023. "Load Forecasting Models in Smart Grid Using Smart Meter Information: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-55, January.
    8. Deb, Chirag & Zhang, Fan & Yang, Junjing & Lee, Siew Eang & Shah, Kwok Wei, 2017. "A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 902-924.
    9. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    10. Wei Sun & Chongchong Zhang, 2018. "A Hybrid BA-ELM Model Based on Factor Analysis and Similar-Day Approach for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, May.
    11. Beganovic, Nejra & Söffker, Dirk, 2016. "Structural health management utilization for lifetime prognosis and advanced control strategy deployment of wind turbines: An overview and outlook concerning actual methods, tools, and obtained result," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 68-83.
    12. Habibi, Hamed & Howard, Ian & Simani, Silvio, 2019. "Reliability improvement of wind turbine power generation using model-based fault detection and fault tolerant control: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 877-896.
    13. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    14. Zhang, Ning & Li, Zhiying & Zou, Xun & Quiring, Steven M., 2019. "Comparison of three short-term load forecast models in Southern California," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    15. Xueli An & Dongxiang Jiang, 2014. "Bearing fault diagnosis of wind turbine based on intrinsic time-scale decomposition frequency spectrum," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 228(6), pages 558-566, December.
    16. Dongxiao Niu & Yi Liang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2017. "Wind Speed Forecasting Based on EMD and GRNN Optimized by FOA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Le Zhang & Qiang Yang, 2020. "Investigation of the Design and Fault Prediction Method for an Abrasive Particle Sensor Used in Wind Turbine Gearbox," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, January.
    18. Miloš Božić & Miloš Stojanović & Zoran Stajić & Dragan Tasić, 2013. "A New Two-Stage Approach to Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-19, April.
    19. Ding Zhai & Anyang Lu & Jinghao Li & Qingling Zhang, 2016. "Fault detection for singular switched linear systems with multiple time-varying delay in finite frequency domain," International Journal of Systems Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(13), pages 3232-3257, October.
    20. Hannah Jessie Rani R. & Aruldoss Albert Victoire T., 2018. "Training radial basis function networks for wind speed prediction using PSO enhanced differential search optimizer," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-35, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:4:p:490-:d:95031. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.